ALIBABA weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
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MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
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MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
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MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
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MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
CHINA E-COMMERCE:
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MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
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MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025 TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
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MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.
ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
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THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
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EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 59% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 13.50, well below the industry median of 25.47. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 38.51 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 63.18.
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MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue is expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue is expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
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EVENT: Alibaba posted outstanding 1st Quarter financials on May 26th, 2022. The company earned $1.25 per share, and over $32 billion in revenue. Those figures beat forecasts by 17.95% and 7.27% respectively.
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NEWS: STOCK BUYBACK: Alibaba increased the size of its Share Repurchase Program to $25 billion on March 22, 2022, “In a sign of confidence about the Company’s continued growth in the future.” according to Alibaba’s website.
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ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $150.85, according to Bloomberg. Credit Suisse rated the stock on June 10th, 2022 with a price target of $163. Nomura rated Alibaba on June 7th, 2022 with a price target of $131. HSBC rated the stock on June 6th, 2022 with a price target of $146.
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UPSIDE POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 200% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020).
(#ALIBABA), June 13, 2022
Current Price: 105.00
Alibaba |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
144.00 |
|
132.00 |
|
120.00 |
|
95.00 |
|
85.00 |
|
75.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Alibaba |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
39,000.00 |
27,000.00 |
15,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-20,000.00 |
-30,000.00 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
37,206.64 |
25,758.44 |
14,310.25 |
-9,540.16 |
-19,080.33 |
-28,620.49 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
31,799.35 |
22,014.94 |
12,230.52 |
-8,153.68 |
-16,307.36 |
-24,461.04 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
50,015.94 |
34,626.42 |
19,236.90 |
-12,824.60 |
-25,649.20 |
-38,473.80 |
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1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
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Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:41 (GMT+1) 13/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details.