Crude Oil weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- GOLDMAN SACHS: The recent sell-off in oil prices amid an otherwise large rally is a “transient (lasting only for a short time) pullback” and a buying opportunity, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note dated March 18. Despite the sharp move lower, a rapid rebalancing of the oil market is expected in coming months, with vaccinations driving an increase in mobility including air travel.
- ANALYSTS REMAIN BULLISH ON OIL PRICES: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its second-quarter and third-quarter forecasts for Brent by $5 each to $75 and $80 a barrel, respectively. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects the OPEC+ decision to open a 1.8 million barrel-a-day deficit over the next three months on restrained supply and rising demand and it raised its Brent forecasts by $2 to $3 a barrel (Brent oil to peak at $80 in Q2 (Crude ~$77). Citigroup says prices could rise to $70 (Crude oil ~$67). UBS expects Crude oil to jump to $72 a barrel.
- OPEC+ meeting on March 4, 2021: BULLISH DECISION: OPEC+ alliance surprised traders with its decision to keep output almost unchanged. The OPEC+ producer alliance agreed during a virtual gathering to hold output steady in April. Saudi Arabia said it is in no hurry to bring back supply and will maintain its 1 million barrel-a-day voluntary production cut in April.
- CHINA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IMPROVES, SUPPORTING HIGHER OIL DEMAND: China is the second largest oil consumer in the world after the U.S. and the largest oil importer in the world. The Chinese economy continued to recover in 2021. In the January-February period, exports jumped 60.6% from a year earlier (expected 38.9% increase). In January-February, imports increased 22.2% from a year earlier, above the 15% forecast. China's crude imports gained 5.8% on the year to 11.13 million b/d in January-February 2021, rebounding from the 27-month low of 9.1 million b/d recorded in December.
- US STIMULUS BILL PASSED IN THE US CONGRESS: The US Congress passed the $1.9 trillion bill. US Stimulus could boost the US economy and therefore increase oil demand.
- Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout across the world has helped the sentiment and improved beliefs that the pandemic could end by the end of this year. Meanwhile, the numbers of new daily covid-19 cases continued to fall across many countries in the world, including the U.S. and U.K., which increases beliefs that economies will open at bigger scale in the coming period.
Crude Oil, March 19, 2021
Current Price: 59.50
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
68.00 |
|
|
65.00 |
|
|
54.00 |
|
|
52.50 |
|
|
50.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
10,500.00 |
8,500.00 |
5,500.00 |
-5,500.00 |
-7,000.00 |
-9,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €** |
8,812.50 |
7,133.92 |
4,616.07 |
-4,616.07 |
-5,875.00 |
-7,973.21 |
|
Profit or loss in £** |
7,547.88 |
6,110.18 |
3,953.65 |
-3,953.65 |
-5,031.92 |
-6,829.03 |
|
Profit or loss in C$** |
13,122.17 |
10,622.71 |
6,873.52 |
-6,873.52 |
-8,748.11 |
-11,872.44 |
* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 7:00 a.m. (GMT) 19/03/2021
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details