NATURAL GAS weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
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LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
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LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
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CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
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E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
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RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR:
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GEOPOLITICS (RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR): President Vladimir Putin announced an attack on Ukraine on February 24, days after he recognized two breakaway regions of Russia’s neighbor as independent. Attacks are occurring in Odessa, Mariupol and other locations in Ukraine.
ECONOMIC WAR AND SANCTIONS:
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BREAKING (MAY 26): PART OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES VIA UKRAINE TO EUROPE STOPPED ON MAY 11 STILL SHUT DOWN: Ukraine said it will stop operations with the Sokhranivka transit on May 11, which affect around 9.8% of the total natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe.
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BREAKING (MAY 21): RUSSIA STOPPED NATURAL GAS SUPPLIES TO FINLAND as the country said it will not be paying in Rubles. In 2021, Russian supplies made two thirds (67%) of total Finish natural gas consumption. BREAKING (APRIL 27): Russia stopped gas supplies to POLAND under the Yamal contract and BULGARIA on Wednesday. Poland's gas supply contract with energy giant Gazprom is for 10.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, and covers about 50% of national consumption.
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BREAKING (MARCH 31): RUSSIA PRESIDENT PUTIN SIGNED A DEECRE DEMANDING RUBLE- PAYMENT FORM GAS. Payments to start April 1, 2022.
CURRENT:
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BREAKING NEWS (June 8): EXPLOSION AT NATURAL GAS EXPORT POINT IN TEXAS, US (FREEPORT LNG). One of the biggest natural gas plants will be closed for three weeks after an explosion. Freeport accounts for 20% of the US liquefaction capacity or 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (a process when natural gas is supercooled and loaded on to tankers for export delivery) and almost 15% exports last year. Freeport is one of the seven terminals operating in the US.
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DEVELOPING ENERGY CRISIS IN THE U.S.: Demand for Natural Gas rises in the US due to hot temperatures as plants use natural gas to cool temperatures. Hotter than usual temperatures in the US West, South and East (over the next 8- 14 days). Scorching heat expected in Texas, US, through June 20. Electricity demand is expected to rise to all- time highs creating an energy crisis.
HISTORICAL PRICE SHOCKS WITH NATURAL GAS:
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PRICE HISTORY (Bloomberg): The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of 15.780 in 2005. After a pull- back, the Natural Gas prices rose again in 2008 to test the level of 13.694. Natural gas trades around 8.90, and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 77%.
Natural Gas, June 10, 2022
Current Price: 8.900
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Natural Gas |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
15.780 |
|
|
13.694 |
|
|
10.000 |
|
|
7.900 |
|
|
7.500 |
|
|
7.200 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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NATURAL GAS |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
68,800.00 |
47,940.00 |
11,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-14,000.00 |
-17,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
64,810.89 |
45,160.38 |
10,362.21 |
-9,420.19 |
-13,188.26 |
-16,014.32 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
55,132.62 |
38,416.54 |
8,814.81 |
-8,013.46 |
-11,218.85 |
-13,622.89 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
87,414.53 |
60,910.65 |
13,976.16 |
-12,705.60 |
-17,787.84 |
-21,599.52 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT+1) 10/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail