Natural Gas

NATURAL GAS weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:

• LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;

• LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)

• CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).

• E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).

• RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.

US HURRICANE SEASON (June 1 to November 30):

• ABOVE- AVERAGE HURRICANE ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN 2022: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast (with a 70% confidence) a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms of which 6 to 10 can became hurricanes. The risk is that they can turn into major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5.

• HURRICANES USUALLY ATTACK THE GULF OF MEXICO (which includes offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama): The Gulf continues to be the nation's primary offshore source of oil and gas, generating about 97% of all U.S. offshore oil and gas production. There used to around 1,900 oil and gas platforms.

• RECENT HISTORY SHOWS THAT HURRICANES IMPACT THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES:

  1. HURRICANE “IDA” (August 26, 2021): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $3.943 TO $6.310 (+60.00%) WITHIN A MONTH. Ida's ferocious winds and storm surge made a direct hit on Port Fourchon, the nation's most important hub for the offshore industry in the Gulf of Mexico.

  2. HURRICANE “DELTA” (October 4, 2020): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $2.485 TO $3.391 (+36.05%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Delta shut most US offshore oil and gas output in 15 years.

  3. HURRICANE “IKE” (September 1, 2008): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $5.440 TO $7.186 (+32.10%) WITHIN A MONTH.

  4. HURRICANE “KATRINA” (August 26, 2005): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $9.190 TO $14.750 (+60.50%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Katrina caused severe damage to U.S. refinery and production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico.

*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

CURRENT:

• BREAKING NEWS (June 23): GERMANY TRIGGERED THE “ALARM STAGE” of its emergency plan in response to falling Russian natural gas supplies. The second "alarm stage" of a three-stage emergency plan means authorities see a high risk of long-term supply shortages. It includes a clause allowing utilities to immediately pass on high prices to industry and households.

• BREAKING NEWS (June 8): EXPLOSION AT NATURAL GAS EXPORT POINT IN TEXAS, US (FREEPORT LNG). One of the biggest natural gas plants will be closed for at least three months after an explosion. Freeport accounts for 20% of the US liquefaction capacity or 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (a process when natural gas is supercooled and loaded on to tankers for export delivery) and almost 20% exports this year. Freeport is one of the seven terminals operating in the US.

• PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Meanwhile, Natural Gas has fallen around 37% over the past three weeks from $9.658 to $6.063, its lowest rate since April 7, 2022. Natural gas trades around 6.063, and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 160%.

Natural Gas, June 24, 2022
Current Price: 6.065

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:40 (GMT+1) 24/06/2022

Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one

• Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail