NATURAL GAS weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
- CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
- E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
- RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
US HURRICANE SEASON (June 1 to November 30):
- RECENT HISTORY SHOWS THAT HURRICANES IMPACT THE OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES:
- HURRICANE “IDA” (August 26, 2021): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $3.943 TO $6.310 (+60.00%) WITHIN A MONTH. Ida's ferocious winds and storm surge made a direct hit on Port Fourchon, the nation's most important hub for the offshore industry in the Gulf of Mexico.
- HURRICANE “DELTA” (October 4, 2020): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $2.485 TO $3.391 (+36.05%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Delta shut most US offshore oil and gas output in 15 years.
- HURRICANE “IKE” (September 1, 2008): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $5.440 TO $7.186 (+32.10%) WITHIN A MONTH.
- HURRICANE “KATRINA” (August 26, 2005): NATURAL GAS ROSE FROM $9.190 TO $14.750 (+60.50%) WITHIN A MONTH. Hurricane Katrina caused severe damage to U.S. refinery and production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico.
*Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
CURRENT:
BREAKING NEWS (EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS JUMPS): RHINE RIVER FALLS IN WATER LEVELS AND IT CANNOT BE USED TO TRANSPORT ENERGY PRODUCTS TO ENTITIES. Companies rely on the river to supply major industrial plants with fuels and raw materials. The river links Germany and Switzerland with Rotherdam, Europe’s biggest port.
FREEPORT LNG (AUGUST 4), FREEPORT LNG reached an agreement with regulators to restart operation at full capacity in October 2022. This will boost demand for US LNG by 2 billion cubic feet per day, which is 2% of US output. The US made a deal to increase exports to Europe from 1.4 to 4.8 billion cubic feet. Freeport has a capacity of 2.1 billion cubic feet which would represent 43.75%. Natural Gas prices in Europe have jumped around 79.44% over the past month.
RUSSIA CUT NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO EUROPE VIA NORD STREAM 1 TO 20% FROM PREVIOUS 40% OF CAPACITY (JULY 26).The Russian gas export monopoly, Gazprom, said it was halting the operation of one of the last two operating turbines due to the “technical condition of the engine”, cutting daily gas deliveries via the Nord Stream pipeline to 33m cubic meters a day – about 20% of the pipeline’s capacity.
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE U.S. TO KEEP DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY AND NATURAL GAS HIGH. A heat wave in California, and forecasts for more hot weather and higher air conditioning demand in late August are increasing electricity and natural gas demand.
PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. After falling around 20% to $7.5in June this year, Natural Gas began to recover. Currently is moving around $9.4 and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 67.57%.
NATURAL GAS, August 17, 2022
Current Price: 9.37
|
Current Price: |
9.37 |
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
11.80 |
|
|
11.20 |
|
|
10.50 |
|
|
8.39 |
|
|
8.00 |
|
|
7.60 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $² |
24,300.00 |
18,300.00 |
11,300.00 |
-9,800.00 |
-13,700.00 |
-17,700.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
23,925.56 |
18,018.02 |
11,125.88 |
-9,648.99 |
-13,488.90 |
-17,427.26 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
20,101.25 |
15,137.98 |
9,347.50 |
-8,106.68 |
-11,332.80 |
-14,641.65 |
|
Profit or loss in C$ |
31,256.85 |
23,539.11 |
14,535.08 |
-12,605.64 |
-17,622.17 |
-22,767.33 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:30 (GMT+1) 17/8/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details