Oil Basket

Special Reports - 21/10/2021

21 October, 2021

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Oil Basket Weekly Uptrend Opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

OIL SECTOR EARNINGS SEASON OCTOBER 28th – November 2nd

Company	Ticker	Sectors	Earnings Date	Time
Exxon Mobil Corp	#EXXONMOBIL	Oil	October 29	PREMARKET
BP Plc	#BP.L	Oil	November 2	PREMARKET
Royal Dutch Shell Plc	#RDSA.L	Oil	October 28	PREMARKET

Source: Bloomberg

ENERGY CRISIS: Worldwide energy shortages are threatening to develop into a full-blown crisis with implications that stretch from Europe to China and the U.S. oil patch. Natural-gas prices in Europe and around the world have risen amid shortages. Shortages of coal and natural gas, similar to those that have hit Europe, are partly behind shortages of electric power in China. Global gas shortage and winter oil demand could firmly support the revenues of the company.
OIL PRICE EXPECTATIONS: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the market’s deficit was larger than expected, and raised its year-end Brent forecast by $10 to $90 a barrel (Crude oil ~$87 a barrel). Citigroup Inc. said it remained “outright bullish” on crude oil as well as gas, according to a commodities outlook. Prices could rise to $90 a barrel. Bank of America says that Brent oil could jump to $100 a barrel (Crude oil ~$97-98 a barrel) due to global energy crunch.
According to Bloomberg, the basket has beaten earnings and revenues expectations collectively 56.25% of the time over the last 8 quarters.

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE (PAST 8 QUARTERS): EARNINGS and REVENUE

Company	Earnings Beats Expectations	Revenues Beats Expectations
Exxon Mobile Corp	6 of 8	6 of 8
BP Plc	6 of 8	2 of 8
Royal Dutch Shell Plc	6 of 8	1 of 8

Source: Bloomberg

STOCK PRICE PREDICTION: BASED ON ANALYSIS

Downside potential	Upside Potential
-3.10%	+5.50%
Potential Profit/Loss on 1 lot of every stock in the basket¹
-$4,279	$7,591
-€3,674	€6,519
-£3,100	£5,499
-C$5,275	C$9,358

Data Source on Stock Returns and Volatility: Bloomberg

TARGET LEVELS: SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

Company	Support	Current Price	Resistance
Exxon Mobil Corp	$61.77	$63.75	$67.26
BP Plc	349.55 pence	360.73 pence	380.57 pence
Royal Dutch Shell Plc	1718.28 pence	1773.25 pence	1870.78 pence

Note: Support and Resistance Levels have been calculated by using upside and downside potential figures.

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future performance.

¹-Profit/Loss Calculation (**): Based on 1 lot (*) on each of the three stocks (3 lots). Range: based on fundamental analysis.

* Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Plc: 1.00 lot is equivalent to 1000 units, BP Plc.: 1 lot is equivalent to 10000 units.
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 21/10/2021.
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail

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