WHEAT weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:
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LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2022: 774.8 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, European Union at ~17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~10%, USA at ~6.4% and Ukraine ~3.4%.
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LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF TOTAL 183.8 MILLION TONS (2020/2021): Russia at 23.9%, Canada at 12.44%, USA at 12.24%, France at 10.30% and Ukraine at 8.9%.
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RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~30%: Russia and Ukraine would make around 33% of total global exports.
RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR AND RUSSIA AGAINST THE WEST ECONOMIC WAR:
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UKRAINE FAILS TO EXPORT WHEAT, AS SEAPORTS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WAR: Ukrainian Wheat exports to fall from 16.37 million tons to 10 million tons in 2022, marking a decline of around 40%. In addition, this could affect Ukraine’s new harvest as there will be no room to store newly harvested grain as the old one remains stuck in storages. This means that much of the new harvest could go harvest and to worsen the ongoing global food crisis.
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EVERY SECOND TO THIRD PIECE OF BREAD IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST IS PRODUCED FROM UKRAINIAN WHEAT: According to the Global Hunger Index, 47 countries had higher level of hunger in 2021, and the war in Ukraine could bring this number to more than 60 countries in 2022.
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RUSSIA WHEAT EXPORTS BANS EXPIRE ON JUNE 30: Starting July 1, Russia is expected to export 39 million tons of wheat for 2022/2023 season, which is still down around 11% from same period last year.
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OTHER COUNTRIES THAT BANNED WHEAT EXPORTS: In addition to Russia and Ukraine, India, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Serbia have also banned wheat exports.
U.S. HEAT WAVE:
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IF JUNE’S HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO JULY, CROP YIELDS WILL FALL. Analysts do not expect rain into July, meaning that wheat crops could suffer a growth decline. The US is the fifth largest producer of wheat in the world, and if not enough wheat in the country, they will have to import.
EUROPE HEAT WAVE:
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FRANCE AND OTHER PARTS OF EUROPE TO FACE HOT WEATHER AS WELL. According to recent weather forecasts, some parts of Europe, including France will experience 35 to 30 Celsius Degrees of temperatures, which if persistent could hurt crop yields.
RECENT PRICE ACTION:
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WHEAT PRICES HAVE HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 31% (FROM 1340 ON MARCH 4 TO 927.12 ON JUNE 24). In early March, the Wheat prices rose to an all- time high of 1340. On June 24, The Wheat prices tested their lowest rate since February 28, 2022 (927.12). The wheat prices fell on some market reliefs related the war in Ukraine. Wheat traded last around 945, and if a full recovery happens, it could provide an upside potential of around 42%.
WHEAT, June 24, 2022
Current Price: 945
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Wheat |
Weekly |
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Trend direction |
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1275 |
|
|
1150 |
|
|
1040 |
|
|
863 |
|
|
830 |
|
|
800 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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WHEAT |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
33,000.00 |
20,500.00 |
9,500.00 |
-8,200.00 |
-11,500.00 |
-14,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
31,363.16 |
19,483.17 |
9,028.79 |
-7,793.27 |
-10,929.58 |
-13,780.78 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
26,899.25 |
16,710.14 |
7,743.72 |
-6,684.06 |
-9,373.98 |
-11,819.37 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
42,812.55 |
26,595.68 |
12,324.83 |
-10,638.27 |
-14,919.53 |
-18,811.58 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:50 (GMT+1) 24/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail