AMAZON (#AMAZON) weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
- MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
- MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: US is estimated to claim 19% of the global market, China 52.1%, UK 4.8% and Japan 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Amazon accounts for 13% and Alibaba 24% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
US E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE ($1.4 trillion): The US e-commerce market was $1.4 trillion in 2021. The US market grew at 13% per year since 2017.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE BY 2025 TO $2.05 FROM CURRENT $1.4 TRILLION): U.S. e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 10% between 2021 and 2025 to reach US$2.05 trillion in 2025. That would be 28% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
- MARKET SHARE: Amazon is the largest online retailer in the US with 37.8% market share. Walmart is second capturing 6.3%, while Apple and eBay cover 3.9% and 3.5% respectively.
AMAZON (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: Amazon is an American multinational technology company focusing on e-commerce, cloud computing, online advertising, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence. It has been referred to as "one of the most influential economic and cultural forces in the world.
- EVENT: Q4 2022 EARNINGS (EXPECTED FEBRUARY 3, 2023): Amazon is expected to report its Q4 2022 earnings report on Feb 3, 2022. Q4 is set to be a record setting Revenue quarter, with the company forecasting to report between $140b - $148b, their highest revenue numbers in the company’s history.
- HISTORICALLY, Q4 REVENUE TENDS TO BE ON AVERAGE 35% HIGHER THAN EACH RESPECTIVE QUARTER: According to Bloomberg, Amazon Q4 revenues tend to be the highest of the year, with Q4 being on average about 35% higher than each quarter throughout the year.
- AMAZON WEB SERVICES DOMINATE THE CLOUD MARKET, WITH 34% MARKET SHARE: Amazon Web Services dominate the cloud markets, ahead of Microsoft Azure (24%), Google Cloud (10%) and Alibaba Cloud (5%). The Cloud industry is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate at 17.9% until 2028, to $791.49B, with Amazon Web Services set to maintain dominance. If Amazon Web Services maintains its 34% market share, it could generate $269B revenue per year from 2028. For 2022, Amazon Web Services is expected to generate ~$68B.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan’s price target is $130. Wells Fargo is targeting $155. Citi is targeting $145 while Morgan Stanley targets $140. The Consensus Bloomberg price target is at $137.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: Amazon stock made its all-time high of $185.97 in July, 2021. The stock currently trades around $85 which is around 54.29% below the record high. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 118.78%. However, it could go lower.
AMAZON, January 4, 2022
Current Price:85.00
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Amazon |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
130.00 |
|
|
120.00 |
|
|
105.00 |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
60.00 |
|
|
50.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Amazon |
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|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
4,500.00 |
3,500.00 |
2,000.00 |
-1,500.00 |
-2,500.00 |
-3,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
4,238.59 |
3,296.68 |
1,883.82 |
-1,412.86 |
-2,354.77 |
-3,296.68 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
3,730.69 |
2,901.65 |
1,658.09 |
-1,243.56 |
-2,072.61 |
-2,901.65 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
6,148.17 |
4,781.91 |
2,732.52 |
-2,049.39 |
-3,415.65 |
-4,781.91 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:55 (GMT) 04/01/2023
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