COCOA

COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

SUPPLY SIDE:

• OCTOBER 2025 – MARCH 2026: HARVEST SEASON IN THE IVORY COAST AND GHANA HAS BEGUN IN OCTOBER. The Ivory Coast and Ghana are responsible for around 60% of the total global cocoa supply. The first data are expected to be released in November.

DEMAND SIDE:

• HOLIDAY SEASON (STARTING IN NOVEMBER): CHOCOLATE (COCOA) DEMAND SPIKES TRADITIONALLY DURING THIS HOLIDAY SEASON. According to Barchart.com, Holidays are a primary catalyst for chocolate demand, with Christmas and Halloween being particularly significant in terms of sales volume. Over 63% of annual candy sales occur during the four major holidays: Christmas, Easter, Valentine's Day, and Halloween.

STATISTICS (LAST 5 YEARS IN NOVEMBER): AVERAGE INCREASE OF +12.95%. LAST YEAR (NOVEMBER): +35.61%.

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

EVENTS:

• EVENT (EXPECTED: BETWEEN NOVEMBER 10 AND NOVEMBER 14): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) COCOA MARKET REPORT (OCTOBER). The monthly report shows the market’s supply and demand outlook as well as the general market balance data. It could include data for the most recent start of the harvest season in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world.
• EVENT (EXPECTED: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) QUARTERLY BULLETIN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The Q3 issue is usually published at the end of November. It includes revised estimates for world cocoa production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa. It should come amid the ongoing harvest season in West Africa, with Ghana and Ivory Coast being the largest cocoa producers in the world.

NEWS:

• BREAKING (NOVEMBER 10): IVORY COAST EXPORTS SLOWED DOWN. Monday's government data (November 10) showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 411,979 tons of cocoa to ports this new marketing year from October 1 through November 8, down 9% compared with 454,624 tons in the same period a year ago. EXPECTATIONS FOR HARVEST SEASON (IVORY COAST): The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 tons, down 9% from last year's 440,000 tons.
• BREAKING (OCTOBER 31): COCOA TO BE INCLUDED IN THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) STARTING JANUARY 2026. According to Barchart.com, Cocoa will be included in the index for the first time in 2 decades, beginning in January 2026. According to Peak Trading Research LLC, Investment Funds will have to buy about $1.9 billion in cocoa futures over the next 80 days.

TECHNICAL REVIEW

• COCOA PRICES HAVE RECENTLY TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2024 ($5619).
• SUPPORT AREA: $6,000. After testing the area below $6,000, Cocoa prices quickly came back above $6,000, indicating near-term support.
• STATISTICS (LAST OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2024): DURING THE HARVEST SEASON IN WEST AFRICA. Cocoa hit a low of $6,419 in October, then it rebounded, extending recovery through $7,000 to hit a fresh all-time high of $12,911 in December (an increase of around 100%).
• ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $6,500, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 98%. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (DAILY): JULY 2024 - NOVEMBER 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

COCOA (#COCOA) November 11, 2025.
Current Price: 6,000

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 11/11/2025

There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.