COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
SUPPLY SIDE:
- OCTOBER 2025 – MARCH 2026: HARVEST SEASON IN THE IVORY COAST AND GHANA HAS BEGUN IN OCTOBER. The Ivory Coast and Ghana are responsible for around 60% of the total global cocoa supply. Ivory Coast government data showed that farmers shipped 411,979 tons of cocoa to ports from October 1 to November 8, which is down 9% from the same period last year.
DEMAND SIDE:
- HOLIDAY SEASON (STARTING IN NOVEMBER): CHOCOLATE (COCOA) DEMAND SPIKES TRADITIONALLY DURING THIS HOLIDAY SEASON. According to Barchart.com, Holidays are a primary catalyst for chocolate demand, with Christmas and Halloween being particularly significant in terms of sales volume. Over 63% of annual candy sales occur during the four major holidays: Christmas, Easter, Valentine's Day, and Halloween.
STATISTICS (LAST 5 YEARS IN NOVEMBER): AVERAGE INCREASE OF +12.95%. LAST YEAR (NOVEMBER): +35.61%.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS:
- EVENT (EXPECTED: NOVEMBER 14 OR AFTER): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) COCOA MARKET REPORT (OCTOBER). The monthly report shows the market’s supply and demand outlook as well as the general market balance data. It could include data for the most recent start of the harvest season in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world.
- EVENT (EXPECTED: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) QUARTERLY BULLETIN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The Q3 issue is usually published at the end of November. It includes revised estimates for world cocoa production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa. It should come amid the ongoing harvest season in West Africa, with Ghana and Ivory Coast being the largest cocoa producers in the world.
NEWS:
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 31): COCOA TO BE INCLUDED IN THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) STARTING JANUARY 2026. According to Barchart.com, Cocoa will be included in the index for the first time in 2 decades, beginning in January 2026. According to Peak Trading Research LLC, Investment Funds will have to buy about $1.9 billion in cocoa futures over the next 80 days.
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- COCOA PRICES HAVE RECENTLY TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2024 ($5282).
- SUPPORT AREA: $6,000. Since early October 2025, after testing the area below $6,000, Cocoa prices quickly came back above $6,000, indicating near-term support.
- STATISTICS (LAST OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2024): DURING THE HARVEST SEASON IN WEST AFRICA. Cocoa hit a low of $6,419 in October, then it rebounded, extending recovery through $7,000 to hit a fresh all-time high of $12,911 in December (an increase of around 100%).
- ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $5,280, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 144%. Although prices can fall, too.
GRAPH (DAILY): JUNE 2024 - NOVEMBER 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
COCOA (#COCOA) November 14, 2025.
Current Price: 5,280
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
7,000 |
|
|
6,500 |
|
|
6,000 |
|
|
4,600 |
|
|
4,500 |
|
|
4,400 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
17,200 |
12,200 |
7,200 |
-6,800 |
-7,800 |
-8,800 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
14,803 |
10,500 |
6,197 |
-5,852 |
-6,713 |
-7,574 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
13,075 |
9,274 |
5,473 |
-5,169 |
-5,929 |
-6,690 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
24,135 |
17,119 |
10,103 |
-9,542 |
-10,945 |
-12,348 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 11/14/2025
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.