Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
- EVENT (DECEMBER 4): OPEC+ MEETING. OPEC+ has started cutting its by 2 million barrels a day from November 2022, but more may come. This would be the largest production cut since 2020. These cuts will remain in place from November 2022 until December 2023. At the next meeting, the OPEC+ members may again discuss production cuts in addition to current 2 million barrels a day.
REMINDER: Saudi Arabia, de facto OPEC leader, maintains a fiscal breakeven oil price of around $80 a barrel.
- EVENT (DECEMBER 5): G-7 GROUP AND THE E.U. PRICE CAP ON RUSSIAN OIL TO START TAKING PLACE: The G7 (Group of Seven) consists of the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. The introduction of a price cap on Russian oil means countries that sign up to the policy will only be permitted to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products transported via sea that are sold at or below the price cap. UPDATE (NOVEMBER 30): The G- 7 Group and the EU continued to meet this week to define the price cap.
- EVENT (DECEMBER 5): EU BAN ON 90% OF RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS TO THE EU TO START TAKING PLACE. European Union leaders agreed to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of this year. The embargo would encompass 90% of all imports from Russia once Poland and Germany, which are also connected to the pipeline, stop buying it by the end of the year.
- CHINA REOPENING: GOLDMAN SACHS predicts China will be reopening in Q2 of 2023. A full reopening case imply an upside of $15 per barrel according to the bank.
- ANALYST OPINION: Q4 PRICE EXPECTATIONS (UPDATED VIEW): GOLDMAN SACHS forecasts $100 in Q4 2022, and $115 in Q1 2023. MORGAN STANLEY forecasts $100 in Q4 of 2022 and $110 in 2023. UBS forecasts $110 a barrel by the end of 2022. COMMERZBANK forecasts $100 a barrel. BANK OF AMERICA forecasts $104 a barrel. DEUTSCHE BANK forecasts $100 a barrel in Q1 2023.
Crude Oil, November 30, 2022
Current Price:79.20
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
100.00 |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
86.00 |
|
|
73.00 |
|
|
71.50 |
|
|
70.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
20,800 |
10,800 |
6,800 |
-6,200 |
-7,700 |
-9,200 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
20,056 |
10,414 |
6,557 |
-5,978 |
-7,424 |
-8,871 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
17,333 |
9,000 |
5,667 |
-5,167 |
-6,417 |
-7,667 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
28,136 |
14,609 |
9,198 |
-8,387 |
-10,416 |
-12,445 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 30/11/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail