Special Report: GOLD
Date: December 15, 2022
WEEKLY TREND: UP
HISTORCIAL CHANGES IN GOLD PRICES
|
Year |
December-15 |
January-31 |
Percentage Change |
|
2014- 2015 |
$ 1,221.72 |
$ 1,283.21 |
5.03% |
|
2015- 2016 |
$ 1,060.91 |
$ 1,116.65 |
5.25% |
|
2016- 2017 |
$ 1,127.07 |
$ 1,210.97 |
7.44% |
|
2017-2018 |
$ 1,253.99 |
$ 1,345.09 |
7.26% |
|
2018-2019 |
$ 1,242.04 |
$ 1,318.84 |
6.18% |
|
2019-2020 |
$ 1,475.00 |
$ 1,589.00 |
7.73% |
|
2020-2021 |
$ 1,827.02 |
$ 1,855.52 |
1.56% |
|
2021-2022 |
$ 1,772.07 |
$ 1,797.31 |
1.42% |
|
Average Price Increase |
5.24% |
The table above tells us that gold prices historically rose in the period between December 15 and January 31. After calculating the average price changes over the same period starting 2014- 2015, we found an average increase of 5.24%.
However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
- US Inflation Down to 7.1% from June’s 9.1%
US INFLATION IN OCTOBER FELL TO 7.1% FROM OCTOBER’S 7.7%. Core Inflation came down to 6.0% from previous 6.3%. The US inflation has now come down from its peak of 9.1% to current 7.1% and that trend is expected to continue, which should encourage the US Fed to pursue a less aggressive interest rate hike policy going forward.
- US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Current Interest Rate Hike Cycle Expected to End in March, 2023
The FED raised the rates in December, as expected, by 0.50% points to 4.50%, which is the highest rate since 2007. The Fed is now targeting a terminal rate of 5.00- 5.25% in 2023, and 4.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, Bank of America estimates Fed will start cutting in December 2023, while Morgan Stanley estimates the first cut will arrive in Q4 of 2023. Next meeting of the Fed will take place on February 1, 2023.
- Central Banks Are Buying Gold
Central Banks have bought the biggest amount of Gold this year since 1967 and there is still one more quarter left. The World Gold Council reported that central banks bought 399 tons of bullion in the third quarter, which was nearly double the previous record for Q3.
- Analyst Opinion
BANK OF AMERICA released their 2023 market report expecting Gold prices to go up to $2,000 per ounce. The bank also expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in December 2023, after pausing with the hikes in Q1 of 2023.
Current Price: 1774
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
2000 |
|
|
1900 |
|
|
1830 |
|
|
1720 |
|
|
1710 |
|
|
1700 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
22,600 |
12,600 |
5,600 |
-5,400 |
-6,400 |
-7,400 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
21,299 |
11,875 |
5,278 |
-5,089 |
-6,032 |
-6,974 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
18,374 |
10,244 |
4,553 |
-4,390 |
-5,203 |
-6,016 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
30,690 |
17,110 |
7,605 |
-7,333 |
-8,691 |
-10,049 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT) 15/12/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail