NATURAL GAS weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NATURAL GAS GLOBAL MARKETS:
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER IN THE WORLD (LNG + PIPELINE): 1. RUSSIA (173.81 million tons); 2. USA; 3. QATAR; 4. NORWAY; 5. AUSTRALIA;
- LARGEST NATURAL GAS IMPORTER IN THE WORLD: CHINA (121.99 million tons)
- CHINA’S LARGEST NATURAL GAS SUPPLIER: 1. AUSTRALIA (~26%); 2. TURKMENISTAN (~20%); 3. RUSSIA (~10%).
- E.U. IMPORTS 45% OF NEEDED NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA (OF TOTAL 251.44 million tons): 113 million tons (average daily consumption: 32.85 million tons).
- RUSSIA EXPORTS TO THE E.U. ACCOUNTS FOR 65% OF TOTAL EXPORTS: 113 million tons of 173.81 goes to the E.U.
CURRENT
- The latest US weather models have been updated signaling colder weather. The cold snap will start next weekend and will peak right on Christmas in the bulk of the US.
- EIA reported that US production of natural gas used in homes is set to break an annual record of 98.0 Bcf/d in 2022 and to average between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d in 2023 in 2023, amid more pipeline infrastructure expansion projects in the second half of the year.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a modest 21 Bcf withdrawal from natural gas storage inventories for the week ending Dec. 2. The draw was light compared with historical pulls. However, futures traders appeared to brush off those bearish stats and instead sent prices higher in the minutes after the report was published.
- Worries about decrease of Russian oil supply can send natural gas demand higher as an effective alternative to oil. G-7 nations implemented the price cap on Russian oil that should disallow the world's second-largest oil exporter from selling crude at a price above $60 per barrel.
- The Freeport export terminal was shut down after an explosion on June 8. Executives at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, said they now anticipate they will begin to bring operations back online in late -December. The company said reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations, including utilization of all three liquefaction trains, was about 90% complete. The company expects to then ramp up to 2.0 Bcf/d of production capacity in December, with full restoration to 2.38 Bcf/d to follow. That final push may not happen until March, officials said.
PRICE ACTION: The Natural Gas prices rose to a record high of $15.780 in 2005. Currently is moving around $6.82 and if a full recovery to 2005 highs happens, this could provide an increase of around 131.38%. However, the price could decline further.
NATURAL GAS, December 12, 2022
Current Price:6.82
|
NATURAL GAS |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
9.50 |
|
|
9.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
|
|
5.70 |
|
|
5.00 |
|
|
4.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
26,800.00 |
21,800.00 |
11,800.00 |
-11,200.00 |
-18,200.00 |
-23,200.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
25,384.68 |
20,648.73 |
11,176.84 |
-10,608.52 |
-17,238.85 |
-21,974.80 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
21,833.62 |
17,760.18 |
9,613.31 |
-9,124.50 |
-14,827.31 |
-18,900.74 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
36,617.51 |
29,785.89 |
16,122.64 |
-15,302.84 |
-24,867.12 |
-31,698.74 |
1. 1 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:15 (GMT) 12/12/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
· You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
· Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details