Special Report: Silver
Date: January 16, 2023
WEEKLY: UP
HISTORCIAL CHANGES IN SILVER PRICES
|
Year |
December-15 |
January-31 |
Percentage Change |
|
2014- 2015 |
$ 17.007 |
$ 17.227 |
+1.29% |
|
2015- 2016 |
$ 13.654 |
$ 14.232 |
+4.23% |
|
2016- 2017 |
$ 16.784 |
$17.500 |
+4.27% |
|
2017-2018 |
$ 15.864 |
$ 17.322 |
+9.19% |
|
2018-2019 |
$ 14.515 |
$ 16.010 |
+10.30% |
|
2019-2020 |
$ 16.930 |
$ 18.017 |
+6.42% |
|
2020-2021 |
$ 23.802 |
$ 28.572 |
+20.04% |
|
2021-2022 |
$ 21.930 |
$ 22.440 |
+2.32% |
|
Average Price Increase |
+7.26% |
The table above tells us that silver has historically performed well in the period between December 15 and January 31. After calculating the average price changes over the same period starting 2014- 2015, we found an average increase of 7.26%.
However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
- US Inflation Down to 6.5% from June’s 9.1%
US INFLATION IN DECEMBER FELL TO 6.5% FROM JUNE’S 9.1%. The US inflation has now come down from its peak of 9.1% to current 6.7% and that trend might be expected to continue, which could encourage the US Fed to pursue a less aggressive interest rate hike policy going forward. Inflation rate in the United States slowed for the sixth consecutive month in December, supporting demand for silver as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs.
- US Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Current Interest Rate Hike Cycle Expected to End in March, 2023
The FED raised the rates in December, as expected, by 0.50% points to 4.50%, which is the highest rate since 2007. The Fed is now targeting a terminal rate of 5.00% in 2023, and 4.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, Bank of America estimates Fed will start cutting in December 2023, while Morgan Stanley estimates the first cut will arrive in Q4 of 2023. Next meeting of the Fed will take place on February 1, 2023.
- China Reopening to Increase Demand for Industrial Silver
China is one of the largest consumers of Silver in the world as they continue encourage use of solar panels, whereby Silver finds one major use. Meanwhile, global demand for silver could be expected to rise 16%, to more than 1.2 billion ounces, creating the biggest deficit in decades (194 million ounces). According to Silver Institute, the use of silver by industry, for jewelry and silverware and for bars and coins are all expected to reach record levels of demand in India nearly doubled.
- Price action: Silver prices were trading above $24 per ounce to end a volatile 2022, supported by increased demand for precious metals amid recession concerns and looming supply shortages. Geopolitical risks triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine ramped up demand for silver investments, while Western sanctions threatened supply from major producer Russia.
Current Price:24.00
|
Silver |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
27.00 |
|
|
26.20 |
|
|
25.10 |
|
|
22.90 |
|
|
21.90 |
|
|
21.10 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
30,000.00 |
22,000.00 |
11,000.00 |
-11,000.00 |
-21,000.00 |
-29,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
30,120.48 |
22,088.35 |
11,044.18 |
-11,044.18 |
-21,084.34 |
-29,116.47 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
26,385.22 |
19,349.16 |
9,674.58 |
-9,674.58 |
-18,469.66 |
-25,505.72 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
39,870.00 |
29,238.00 |
14,619.00 |
-14,619.00 |
-27,909.00 |
-38,541.0 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 16/1/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail