Tesla (#TSLA) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL EV MARKETS:
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, the world sold around 63.8 million cars. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% from 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
- MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) COULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market could be growing annually on average by 18.6%.
CHINA EV MARKETS:
- CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2021): EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market.
- MARKET SHARE CHINA: Tesla is the largest EV company in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%) and BYD (~10%)
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA COULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales are expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) will be Electric Vehicles.
TESLA: ANALYSIS
- EVENT (JANUARY 25, AFTERMARKET): Q4 EARNINGS REPORT. Tesla is expected to show another record in terms of revenue after a record quarterly delivery data for Q4. Revenue in Q4 is expected ($24.754 billion) to show an increase of 15.38% from Q3’s $21.455 billion. Net Income in Q4 is expected ($4.456) is expected to show an increase of 22% from Q3’s $3.654 billion.
- Q4 CAR DELIVERY DATA. Tesla delivered a record high number of cars in Q4 of 2022= 405,278. This is UP 17.87% from Q3 of 2022 (383,830). This is also UP 31.32% from Q4 of 2021= 308,600. YEARLY: Tesla delivered a record high number of cars in 2022= 1,313,851. This is UP 40.37% from 2021 (936,000). ANALYST EXPECTATIONS: Tesla analysts say Tesla will target a 1.8- 1.9 million cars of delivery in 2023. This would be UP 37% to 44.6% from 2022.
- TESLA CEO ELON MUSK IS SAID TO STEP DOWN AS CEO OF TWITTER. Elon Musk he will step down as chief executive of Twitter once he finds a replacement, but will still run some key divisions of the social media platform. This could be positive for Tesla investors as Elon Musk can again focus on Tesla. Since April, when Elon Musk first announced he wants to buy Twitter, the Tesla stock has lost around 60%. Since late October, when Elon Musk confirmed he will be buying Twitter after all, the Tesla stock has lost around 34%.
- TESLA STARTED DELIVERY OF ITS SEMI- TRUCK ON DECEMBER 1. Tesla delivered 15 trucks to Pepsi by the end of 2022 as part of their 100 trucks deal.
- NEXT GIGA-FACTORY: INDONESIA. Tesla is close to a deal to start building a new Gigafactory in Indonesia, with capacity of 1 million vehicles. All that will be in addition to current factories in Berlin (Germany), Shanghai (China), Fermont and Austin (USA). Including Indonesia, Tesla could reach production capacity of 3.4 million vehicles.
TESLA: PRICE ACTION
- THE STOCK HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 76% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $414.4 (November 4, 2021). The stock fell to its lowest rate since August 2020 to $100.74 (January 6, 2023). Tesla was last trading around $134, and if a full recovery follows to recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 209%, however the price could decline further.
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Goldman Sachs forecasts $200 a share. Wedbush forecasts $175. Morgan Stanley forecasts $250. Deutsche Bank forecasts $250. Bloomberg’s Analyst Consensus forecasts $195 a share.
#TSLA, January 18, 2023
Current Price: 134
|
Tesla |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
200 |
|
|
185 |
|
|
165 |
|
|
105 |
|
|
100 |
|
|
95 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Tesla |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
66,000 |
51,000 |
31,000 |
-29,000 |
-34,000 |
-39,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
60,798 |
46,980 |
28,557 |
-26,714 |
-31,320 |
-35,926 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
53,478 |
41,324 |
25,118 |
-23,498 |
-27,549 |
-31,600 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
88,212 |
68,164 |
41,433 |
-38,760 |
-45,442 |
-52,125 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 18/01/2023
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