XPENG (#XPENG) weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL EV MARKETS:
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, around 63.8 million cars were sold globally. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% from 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
- MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market should be growing annually on average by 18.6%.
CHINA EV MARKETS:
- CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2021): EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market. Tesla is the largest EV in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%), BYD (~10%) and XPeng with 2.9%.
- CHINA’S EV MARKETS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 61.76% in 2022 TO 5.5 MILLION VEHICLES. Globally, the EV markets are expected to grow from 6.5 million to 9.75 million units in 2022, which is an increase of around 50%. In China, the estimates say that around 25 million cars in total will be sold. The EV would make up around 20% of the total car markets.
- ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales are expected to to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) to be Electric Vehicles.
XPENG (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: XPeng is a Chinese company that designs, develops, produces and distributes smart electric vehicles. The company also provides finance, parts and maintenance services. It is expanding sales into the Netherlands and Sweden. XPeng produced 2.9% of Chinese made electric vehicles in 2021. It delivered 98,155 vehicles. The company is expected to sell over 539,000 vehicles in 2025, a 449% increase over its sales in 2021. XPeng had almost $21 billion of revenue in 2021. Bloomberg forecasts its revenue will be over $132 billion in 2025.
- China's government extended the period that new fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars will be exempt from a purchase tax until Dec. 31, 2023. This would give incentives to Chinese customers to buy Chinese produced EVs like Xpeng instead of US competitors such as Tesla.
- China is relaxing its Covid related rules, signaling more easing may come soon. China is the largest EV market in the world with 56% share.
- Xpeng signaled it could see a bottom to falling deliveries after publishing wider than expected losses in the third quarter. After the announcement shares jumped 45%. XPeng has faced several challenges in recent months, including widespread Covid lockdowns in China and rising material costs. The company expects to deliver between 20,000 and 21,000 of its cars in the fourth quarter.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: Historically Xpeng stock performed the best in Q4 when average price change is around 5%. Xpeng stock made its all-time high of $74.49 in November, 2020. The stock currently trades around $10.3 which is around 86% below the record high. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 623.20%.
XPeng, December 12, 2022
Current Price:10.30
|
XPeng |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
20.00 |
|
|
18.00 |
|
|
15.00 |
|
|
6.80 |
|
|
5.50 |
|
|
4.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
48,500.00 |
38,500.00 |
23,500.00 |
-17,500.00 |
-24,000.00 |
-29,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
45,875.25 |
36,416.43 |
22,228.21 |
-16,552.92 |
-22,701.15 |
-27,430.56 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
39,478.88 |
31,338.90 |
19,128.94 |
-14,244.96 |
-19,535.94 |
-23,605.93 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
66,243.48 |
52,585.03 |
32,097.36 |
-23,902.29 |
-32,780.28 |
-39,609.51 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:45 (GMT) 12/12/2022
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