Moderna
October 7, 2021
WEEKLY TREND: UP
Fundamental Overview:
- MODERNA RECENT PRICE ACTION: Moderna has lost around 35% over the past month, to test its lowest rate in two and a half months ($296.20). Moderna came under pressure after another company (Merck) released positive data for its pill treatment tests against COVID-19 virus, which looked like a competition to Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines.
- EVENTS TO WATCH:
- U.S. FDA FULL APPROVAL: The US Federal Drug Administration (FDA) is expected soon (Q4) to grant Moderna a full approval to its COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. It is currently used under Emergency Use Authorization.
- U.S. FDA BOOSTER SHOT APPROVAL: U.S. regulators are expected to decide at a later date on widespread boosters for COVID vaccines by Moderna. Moderna submitted data to the FDA seeking evaluation for its booster shot on September 1.
- COVID-19 VACCINE SALES TO STAY STRONG: Moderna is still expected to rake in around 20 billion dollars of revenue in 2021, and similar numbers in 2022. Just recently they said that made a deal with Peru to supply them with 20 million doses.
- IMMUNITY FROM VACCINE WANES WITH TIME: According to Pfizer and Moderna researches, the immunity after the second dose wanes within a few months, which means that vaccination process should roll over in order to keep the pandemic under control. Therefore, Moderna could be still expected to sell COVID-19 vaccines and to make money from it. In addition, the COVID-19 vaccine is still the best weapon to the fight the COVID-19 pandemic.
Technical Overview:
- LONG TERM UPTREND: Despite the most recent sell-off, Moderna managed to stay above its long term uptrend lines. This could suggest an upward recovery as long as it stays above the two uptrend (black and orange) lines.
- 14-DAY RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI): The 14-Day RSI has fallen below the oversold threshold of 30. This might signal a potential upward correction.
- RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS: If Moderna manages to stay above the uptrend lines and speculators gather up to trade on 14-Day RSI oversold signal, then it might be expected the prices to start recovering, targeting Resistance 1 of 340. If, however, the prices fail to stay above the uptrend lines, then it might be expected Moderna to continue falling and target Support 1 of 250.
Graph: Moderna, Daily
Current Price: 294
|
MODERNA |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
400 |
|
|
370 |
|
|
340 |
|
|
250 |
|
|
228 |
|
|
210 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
MODERNA |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $** |
106,000.00 |
76,000.00 |
46,000.00 |
-44,000.00 |
-66,000.00 |
-84,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in € |
91,704.23 |
65,750.20 |
39,796.17 |
-38,065.91 |
-57,098.86 |
-72,671.27 |
|
Profit or loss in £** |
78,009.43 |
55,931.29 |
33,853.15 |
-32,381.27 |
-48,571.91 |
-61,818.80 |
|
Profit or loss in C$** |
133,356.48 |
95,614.08 |
57,871.68 |
-55,355.52 |
-83,033.28 |
-105,678.72 |
* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 07/10/2021
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details
