EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation: 

EVENTS:

• FRIDAY, JANUARY 10 AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLL (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (DECEMBER). According to the market consensus, US unemployment rate is expected to come in unchanged at 4.2%. The report will be closely watched as Fed interest rate decisions in 2025 will depend on the US employment mark development as recently the unemployment has jumped from 3.5% to the current 4.2%.
• WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 15 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (DECEMBER): The CPI inflation data from the last month of November came out at 2.6%, up from the 2.3% in October. If it comes near the recent 2.6%, then the US dollar could be expected to rise in value.

GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT- ELECT DONALD TRUMP TAKES OFFICE ON JANUARY 20, 2025

• TRADE WAR: President Trump has on several occasions said that he will increase tariffs on countries that have trade surpluses with the US, including Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. This will increase global economic uncertainties, which in turn, could put negative pressure on currencies other than the US dollar, including the Euro. 

DEVELOPING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: EUROZONE

• EVENT (SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2025): GERMANY ELECTIONS. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition fell apart late last year after the pro-market Free Democrats quit in a row over governmental debt, leaving his Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens without a parliamentary majority just as Germany faces a deepening economic crisis. Uncertainties rise ahead of the February elections as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continued to gain momentum and support ahead of the elections. Fears rise as markets believe that if the AfD wins then serious economic and immigration changes could be implemented within the European Union (EU), which could in turn undermine the unity within the EU. All of these uncertainties could be expected to keep the EURO under negative pressure.

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK TO KEEP CUTTING RATES:

• EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION (DECEMBER). The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate in December from 3.40% to the current 3.15%, and investors expect the ECB could continue with their rate-cutting cycle. The benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone is now expected to be slashed below 3.15%. If the ECB does decide to continue cutting rates, this could push the EURO lower. NEXT MEETING: January 30, 2025 at 13:15 GMT.

ANALYST OPINION:

• HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
• BNP Paribas: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall to parity of 1.0000 in 2025

EURUSD, JANUARY 9, 2025
Current Price: 1.03200

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units 

2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT) 09/01/2025   

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit. 

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one. 

• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.