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November 29, 2023
Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
Special Report: GOLD
Date: November 29, 2023
WEEKLY TREND: UP
HISTORCIAL CHANGES IN GOLD PRICES
|
Year |
December-1 |
January-31 |
Percentage Change |
|
2014 - 2015 |
$ 1,150.70 |
$ 1,283.21 |
+ 11.52% |
|
2015 - 2016 |
$ 1,064.08 |
$ 1,116.65 |
+ 4.94% |
|
2016 - 2017 |
$ 1,172.13 |
$ 1,210.97 |
+ 3.31% |
|
2017 - 2018 |
$ 1,274.52 |
$ 1,345.09 |
+ 5.54% |
|
2018 - 2019 |
$ 1,222.48 |
$ 1,318.84 |
+ 7.88% |
|
2019 - 2020 |
$ 1,462.77 |
$ 1,589.00 |
+ 8.63% |
|
2020 - 2021 |
$ 1,778.38 |
$ 1,855.52 |
+ 4.34% |
|
2021 - 2022 |
$ 1,772.85 |
$ 1,797.31 |
+ 1.38% |
|
2022 - 2023 |
$ 1,773.00 |
$ 1,926.98 |
+ 8.68% |
|
Average Price Increase |
+ 6.25% |
Data Source: Fortrade MetaTrader 4
The table above tells us that gold prices historically rose in the period between December 1 and January 31. After calculating the average price changes over the same period starting 2014- 2015 period, we found an average increase of 6.25%.
However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
The United States will be releasing nonfarm payrolls and unemployment. Nonfarm payrolls have been trending lower recently, while unemployment has been inching higher. If the Nonfarm payrolls continue to fall while unemployment rises, there could be extended US dollar weakness and may push gold higher.
The United States will report its CPI for November. October CPI came in at 3.2%, Year-over-Year, well below its peak of 9.1% peak in 2022. Inflation continues to fall, with levels approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The lower inflation could be positive for gold, as the US dollar could weaken.
The Federal Reserve Bank will meet on December 13th to set the Fed Funds rate target. According to the most recent estimates, analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at the current level of 5.50%. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the Interest Rate decision at 19:30 GMT to answer potential questions and clarify the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate policy.
Current Price:2035
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
2200 |
|
|
2130 |
|
|
2080 |
|
|
1990 |
|
|
1985 |
|
|
1980 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
16,500.00 |
9,500.00 |
4,500.00 |
-4,500.00 |
-5,000.00 |
-5,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
15,031.50 |
8,654.50 |
4,099.50 |
-4,099.50 |
-4,555.00 |
-5,010.50 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
13,008.87 |
7,489.96 |
3,547.87 |
-3,547.87 |
-3,942.08 |
-4,336.29 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
22,399.00 |
12,896.39 |
6,108.82 |
-6,108.82 |
-6,787.58 |
-7,466.33 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 29/11/2023
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