Natural Gas (NG)
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November 30, 2022
December 2022 EVENTS
October's ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 50.2. The consensus forecast for November is 50.0.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The Unemployment rate for October was 3.7%. It is expected to remain the same at 3.7% for November. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 210,000 for November, lower than October’s figure of 261,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting on December 4th. At its last meeting in October it agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day through the end of 2023. It is possible they may make further cuts at this meeting.
Possible Influence: Volatile Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas
Absent any progress in discussions for a price cap on Russian oil, which are currently stalled, the European Union is scheduled to commence an oil embargo against Russian oil that will reduce the amount of oil the European Union buys from Russia by 90% compared to a year ago, before the war in Ukraine.
Possible Influence: Volatile Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas
The RBA will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 2.85%. The bank is forecast to raise interest rates to 3.25%
Possible Influence: Volatile Australian Dollar
The Bank of Canada will meet to set interest rates. They are currently 3.75%. The forecast is they will increase 25 basis points to 4.00%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Canadian Dollar and Canadian Stocks
Saudi Arabia will host a Chinese-Arab Summit on December 9th that is expected to be attended by China’s President Xi Jinping. Leaders from the Middle East and North Africa have been invited to attend.
Possible Influence: Volatile Energy, Commodities
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 6.3%, Year-over-Year in October. November’s Core CPI is expected to fall to 6.2%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for October came in at 7.7%, Year-over-Year and is forecast to drop to 7.6%, Year-over-Year, in November.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The US Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 4.00% after the bank hiked rates by 75 basis points in October. Most analysts expect a 50 basis point increase to 4.50% this month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US dollar, Gold, US Stocks
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will meet to decide on interest rates. The current rate is 3.0%. It is expected to raise interest rates 50 basis points to 3.5%.
Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound and British Stocks
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. They are currently 2.0% and forecast to be increased to 2.5%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European Stocks
Retail Sales increased 1.3%, Month-over-Month, in October. Retail Sales for November are expected to climb 1.0%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. The current rate is -0.10% and is expected to remain the same at -0.10%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
A handful of companies report their quarterly financials in December. These include Costco, Adobe, Federal Express, Nike, and Micron Technologies.
The first print of the U.S. GDP for the 3rd Quarter came in at 2.6% on October 28th, 2022. The final reading is expected to print at 2.6%, Quarter-over-Quarter.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The War in Ukraine is now in its tenth month. Ukraine has executed successful counter offensives in the South and North. It has recaptured the city of Kherson, the only regional capital captured by Russia since the war began. Ukraine has now reclaimed about 47% of the territory that it lost in the first weeks of the invasion. Russia has responded by bombing Ukraines civilian infrastructure (electrical plants and water supplies) around Kiev and other major cities. There are no signs of the war coming to an end anytime soon. Western sanctions and financial support for Ukraine continue unabated, and Russia is not showing any sign of backing down.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Wheat, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks