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December 29, 2022
January 2023 EVENTS
November's ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 49. The consensus forecast for December is 48.5.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The Unemployment rate for November was 3.7%. It is expected to rise to 3.8% for December. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 250,000 for December, lower than November’s figure of 263,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
China will end its quarantine policy for inbound travelers on January 8th. Authorities will no longer be compelled to quarantine patients and their close contacts and lock down regions
Possible Influence: Volatile commodities, travel stocks
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 6.0%, Year-over-Year in November. December’s Core CPI is expected to fall to 5.9%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for November came in at 7.1%, Year-over-Year and is forecast to drop to 7.0%, Year-over-Year, in December.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
World leaders will gather to discuss economic, political, financial and social issues at the WEF annual meeting. Bilateral meetings are also held on the sidelines of the main meeting.
Possible influence: Potentially multiple instruments including commodities, currency pairs, stocks and metals
Retail Sales fell 0.6%, Month-over-Month, in November. Retail Sales for December are expected to climb 0.3%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. The current rate is -0.10% and is expected to remain the same level.
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
The Bank of Canada will meet to set interest rates. They are currently 4.25%. The forecast is that the rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%, but some analysts state that rates could rise by 25 basis points.
Possible Influence: Volatile Canadian Dollar and Canadian Stocks
The final print of the U.S. GDP for the 3rd Quarter came in at 3.2%. The initial reading of the U.S. 4th quarter GDP is expected on January 26th and is forecast to print at 1.2%, Quarter-over-Quarter.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
4th Quarter earnings season kicks off in mid-January with the banks. Companies reporting financial results in January include Taiwan Semiconductor, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, United Airlines, Netflix, American Airlines, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, Las Vegas Sands, Tesla, Apple, Caterpillar, McDonalds, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, Spotify, and General Motors.
The War in Ukraine is now in its tenth month. There are no signs of the war coming to an end anytime soon. Western sanctions and financial support for Ukraine continue unabated. The West continues to send stronger and more potent weapons to Ukraine. Russia is not showing any sign of backing down. Ukraine recently said there is nothing to discuss until Russia pulls back from all occupied territories including Crimea. Russia replied there is no chance of that happening, and that those regions are now part of Russia.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Natural Gas, Wheat, Volatile Russian Ruble, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks
