COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- COCOA PRICES HAVE RECENTLY TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2024 ($5619).
- STATISTICS (LAST OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2024): DURING THE HARVEST SEASON IN WEST AFRICA. Cocoa hit a low of $6,419 in October, then it rebounded, extending recovery through $7,000 to hit a fresh all-time high of $12,911 in December (an increase of around 100%).
- 14 - DAY RELATIVE STRENGHT INDEX ENTERS OVERSOLD TERITORY: The 14 – Relative Strength Index indicator has dipped below 30, pointing to cocoa being oversold, and could be poised for a rebound upwards.
- ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $6,000, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 115%. Although prices can fall, too.
GRAPH (DAILY): JANUARY 2025 - OCTOBER 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
SUPPLY SIDE:
- TOP PRODUCERS: The biggest producers are the Ivory Coast (40% of the world total), Ghana (20% of the world total), Nigeria, and other small countries in Africa (10% of the world total). All in all, West Africa produces around 70% of the world’s total. So, any problems that hit West Africa impact production on a massive scale.
DEMAND SIDE:
- TOP CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of cocoa are developed countries (around 70% of the total demand for cocoa), but the demand for cocoa could increase, especially from emerging and developing countries like China and India. (China and India have cocoa consumption growth rates of around 20% and 10% respectively, which means that the market could double on average every 3,6 and 7,2 years).
EVENTS:
- EVENT (OCTOBER - MARCH): HARVEST SEASON IN THE IVORY COAST AND GHANA HAS BEGUN IN OCTOBER. Both countries are responsible for around 60% of the total global cocoa supply. First data are expected to be released by the end of October, if judged by last year’s harvest season.
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN AUGUST AND JULY INCREASED FEARS FOR A POOR SEASON STARTING IN OCTOBER. Poor weather conditions (severe drought) in July and August in the Ivory Coast threatened production and led the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) to cut its export forecast. The CCC has set a reduced cap of 1.3 million metric tons for export contracts for the 2025/26 season, down from the usual 1.7 million tons.
- EVENT (EXPECTED: LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER 2025): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANISATION (ICCO) QUARTERLY BULLITEN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The Q3 issue is usually published at the end of November. It includes revised estimates for world cocoa production, grindings and stocks of cocoa. It should come amid the ongoing harvest season in West Africa, with Ghana and Ivory Coast being the largest cocoa producers in the world.
NEWS:
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 20): IVORY COAST EXPORTS SLOWED DOWN. Monday’s government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 133,209 tons of cocoa to ports this year from October 1 through October 19, down -31% compared with 192,804 tons in the same period a year ago. EXPECTAITONS FOR HARVEST SEASON (IVORY COAST): The average estimate for this year’s Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 tons, down -9% from last year’s 440,000 tones.
- IVORY COAST POLITICAL TENSION RAISES COCOA SUPPLY RISK. Rising political tensions ahead of the October 25 presidential election pose risk to cocoa supply in a country that accounts for around 40% of total cocoa supply. Opposition parties have called for nation-wide protests. During the political instability of the 2020’s port deliveries of cocoa halved amid the violence.
COCOA (#COCOA) October 22, 2025.
Current Price: 6,000
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
9,000 |
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
7,000 |
|
|
5,200 |
|
|
5,100 |
|
|
5,000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
30,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
-8,000 |
-9,000 |
-10,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
25,873 |
17,249 |
8,624 |
-6,899 |
-7,762 |
-8,624 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
22,523 |
15,015 |
7,508 |
-6,006 |
-6,757 |
-7,508 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
42,034 |
28,023 |
14,011 |
-11,209 |
-12,610 |
-14,011 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:15 (GMT+1) 22/10/2025
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.