COCOA

Posebna poročila - 05/11/2025

05 november, 2025

Spodnji pimer uporablja Pogodbe o razliki (CFD pogodbe). Kalkulacije se nanašajo na ceno določenega instrumenta na spodaj omenjeni dan ter kažejo na morebitno priložnost za dobiček ali izgubo. Ni nobenih zagotovil ali jamstev glede točnosti in popolnosti teh informacij, zato vsaka oseba, ki jo vodijo te informacije, to stori na lastno odgovornost.

COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

SUPPLY SIDE:

OCTOBER 2025 – MARCH 2026: HARVEST SEASON IN THE IVORY COAST AND GHANA HAS BEGUN IN OCTOBER. The Ivory Coast and Ghana are responsible for around 60% of the total global cocoa supply. First data are expected to be released in November.

DEMAND SIDE:

HOLIDAY SEASON (STARTING IN NOVEMBER): CHOCOLATE (COCOA) DEMAND SPIKES TRADITIONALLY DURING THIS HOLIDAY SEASON. According to Barchart.com, Holidays are a primary catalyst for chocolate demand, with Christmas and Halloween being particularly significant in terms of sales volume. Over 63% of annual candy sales occur during the four major holidays: Christmas, Easter, Valentine's Day and Halloween.

STATISTICS (LAST 5 YEARS IN NOVEMBER): AVERAGE INCREASE OF +12.95%. LAST YEAR (NOVEMBER): +35.61%.

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

EVENTS:

EVENT (EXPECTED: BETWEEN NOVEMBER 10 AND NOVEMBER 14): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) COCOA MARKET REPORT (OCTOBER). The monthly report shows the market’s supply and demand outlook as well as the general market balance data. It could include data for the most recent start of the harvest season in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world.
EVENT (EXPECTED: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) QUARTERLY BULLITEN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The Q3 issue is usually published at the end of November. It includes revised estimates for world cocoa production, grindings and stocks of cocoa. It should come amid the ongoing harvest season in West Africa, with Ghana and Ivory Coast being the largest cocoa producers in the world.

NEWS:

BREAKING (OCTOBER 31): COCOA TO BE INCLUDED IN THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) STARTING JANUARY 2026. According to Barchart.com, Cocoa will be included in the index for the first time in 2 decades, beginning in January 2026. According to Peak Trading Research LLC, Investment Funds will have to buy about $1.9 billion in cocoa futures over the next 80 days.
BREAKING (NOVEMBER 3): IVORY COAST EXPORTS SLOWED DOWN. Monday's government data (November 3) showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 304,840 tons of cocoa to ports this new marketing year from October 1 through November 2, down -16% compared with 365,072 tons in the same period a year ago. EXPECTATIONS FOR HARVEST SEASON (IVORY COAST): The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 tones, down -9% from last year's 440,000 tones.

TECHNICAL REVIEW

COCOA PRICES HAVE RECENTLY TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2024 ($5619).
SUPPORT AREA: $6,000. After testing the area below $6,000, Cocoa prices quickly came back above $6,000, indicating near-term support.
STATISTICS (LAST OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2024): DURING THE HARVEST SEASON IN WEST AFRICA. Cocoa hit a low of $6,419 in October, then it rebounded, extending recovery through $7,000 to hit a fresh all-time high of $12,911 in December (an increase of around 100%).
ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $6,500, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 98%. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (DAILY): JULY 2024 - NOVEMBER 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

COCOA (#COCOA) November 5, 2025.
Current Price: 6,500

Cocoa	Weekly
Trend direction	UP
Resistance 3	9,000
Resistance 2	8,000
Resistance 1	7,200
Support 1	5,900
Support 2	5,750
Support 3	5,600

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

Cocoa
	Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
Profit or loss in $	25,000	15,000	7,000	-6,000	-7,500	-9,000
Profit or loss in €²	21,761	13,057	6,093	-5,223	-6,528	-7,834
Profit or loss in £²	19,167	11,500	5,367	-4,600	-5,750	-6,900
Profit or loss in C$²	35,330	21,198	9,892	-8,479	-10,599	-12,719

1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:30 (GMT) 05/11/2025

There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.

Fortrade Ltd is authorised and regulated in the UK by FCA under the licence number 609970.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. See full risk warning

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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs and margin FX are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. You do not own, or have any rights to, the underlying assets. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This information is intended to be general in nature and is not financial product advice. Any advice contained on this website or provided to you by Fort Securities Australia Pty Ltd is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of the information provided and the nature of the relevant financial product having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We encourage you to obtain independent financial advice and consider our Financial Services Guide (FSG), Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Target Market Determination (TMD) to determine if this product is suitable for you before deciding to enter into or obtain any financial products issued by us.

This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade Australia accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Fort Securities Australia Pty Ltd (T/A Fortrade Australia) |ABN: 33 614 683 831 | AFSL: 493520

Risk warning Privacy policy

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Fortrade Canada Limited is an Order Execution Only broker, and does not provide investment advice or recommendation. Fortrade is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Fortrade Canada Limited is authorised to provide CFD trading services in all provinces in Canada except Quebec. Residents of Alberta province are required to be Accredited Investors to trade CFDs.

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Fortrade Canada Limited is regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Company registration number: BC1148613.
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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.52% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Fortrade Cyprus Ltd is regulated and supervised by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) with CIF license number 385/20. CFD products may not be suitable for all clients, therefore ensure, that you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

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Authorised and regulated by Financial Services Commission, Mauritius (FSC), SEC-2.1B investment dealer number: GB21026472.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: All CFDs, including cryptocurrency CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Be aware, as a retail client you can lose all, but not more than the balance of your trading account due to Fortrade’s negative balance protection.

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CFD so zapleteni instrumenti in predstavljajo tveganje za hitro izgubijo denarja, zaradi finančnega vzvoda. 70% maloprodajnih računov investitorjev izgubi denar pri trgovanju CFD s tem ponudnikom. Vi biste morali vzeti v poštev kako CFD delujejo in če si lahko privoščite visoko tveganje zaradi mogoče izgube denarja. Svoja sredstva lahko izgubite, vendar zgolj v višini vašega depozita. Ti proizvodi morda ne bodo primerni za vse stranke, zato morate biti prepricani, da ste razumeli tveganje. Poišcite tudi neodvisen nasvet. To gradivo ni ne ponudba, ne povpraševanje in ne transakcija glede kateregakoli financnega instrumenta. Fortrade ne sprejme nobene odgovornosti za kakršnokoli uporabo teh komentarjev in tudi ne za posledice, ki lahko iz tega izvirajo. Ni nikakršnega zagotovila in ne garancije glede tocnosti ali popolnosti teh podatkov. Posledicno vsaka oseba, ki se ravna po njih, to dela popolnoma na lastno odgovornost.

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Opozorilo o tveganju: Pogodbe za razliko (CFD-ji) in finančni trgi z maržo so produkti z vzvodom ter predstavljajo visoko stopnjo tveganja za vaš kapital. Trgujte zgolj z denarjem, ki ga lahko izgubite. Zavedati se morate, da: Lahko izgubite vse, toda ne več od stanja na vašem računu za trgovanje. Niste lastnik ter nimate nobenih pravic do osnovnih finančnih instrumentov. Pretekli rezultati niso zagotovilo za rezultate v prihodnosti. To so splošne informacije in ne predstavljajo nasveta glede finančnih produktov. Vsi nasveti, navedeni na tej spletni strani, ali ki vam jih nudi družba Fort Securities Australia Pty Ltd, so zgolj splošni nasveti ter so bili sestavljeni brez obzira na vaše cilje, finančno situacijo ali potrebe. Preden sprejmete odločitev na podlagi katerihkoli informacij morate razmisliti o primernosti navedenih informacij ter o naravi ustreznega finančnega produkta glede na svoje cilje, finančno situacijo in potrebe. Svetujemo vam, da poiščete neodvisno finančno svetovanje ter upoštevate naš Priročnik za finančne storitve (FSG) in Izjavo o razkritju produktov (PDS), preden se odločite za sodelovanje ali nakup finančnih produktov z naše strani.

Informacije na tej strani niso namenjene prebivalcem Združenih držav Amerike ali Belgije, prav tako niso namenjene distribuciji ali uporabi s strani katerekoli osebe v katerikoli državi ali pristojnosti, kjer takšna distribucija ali uporaba ne bi bila skladna z lokalnimi zakoni ali predpisi.

Fort Securities Australia PTY. LTD. (T/A Fortrade Australia) | ABN: 33 614 683 831 | AFSL number: 493520.

Poglejte celotno opozorilo o tveganjih. Pravilnik o zasebnosti

Opozorilo o tveganju: CFD-ji so zapleteni finančni instrumenti, ki zaradi vzvoda prinašajo visoko tveganje hitre izgube denarja. 67.52% malih vlagateljev izgubi denar pri trgovanju s CFD-ji pri tem ponudniku. Premislite, ali razumete, kako CFD-ji delujejo, in ali si lahko privoščite visoko tveganje izgube svojega denarja. Fortrade Cyprus Ltd je reguliran in nadzorovan s strani Ciprske komisije za vrednostne papirje in borzo (CySEC) z licenco CIF številka 385/20. CFD-ji morda niso primerni za vse stranke, zato poskrbite, da razumete tveganja, povezana z njimi, in poiščite neodvisni nasvet. To gradivo ne predstavlja ponudbe ali povabila k sklenitvi transakcije s katerim koli finančnim instrumentom. Fortrade ne prevzema odgovornosti za kakršno koli uporabo teh informacij in za posledice, ki iz tega izhajajo. Prav tako ni podano nobeno zagotovilo ali jamstvo glede točnosti ali celovitosti teh informacij; posledično vsakdo, ki deluje na podlagi teh informacij, to počne izključno na lastno odgovornost.

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Opozorilo o tveganju: Vsi CFD-ji, vključno s CFD-ji na kriptovalute, so kompleksni instrumenti in vključujejo visoko tveganje hitre izgube denarja zaradi finančnega vzvoda. Zavedajte se, da lahko kot maloprodajni uporabnik izgubite vse, vendar ne več kot stanje na svojem trgovalnem računu, zaradi zaščite pred negativnim saldom pri Fortrade.

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