COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL COCOA MARKET:
- Cocoa is a versatile ingredient used worldwide in confectionery. From chocolate bars to baked goods, cocoa enriches flavor and texture. It also contains antioxidants, potentially providing health benefits. Additionally, cocoa cultivation supports millions of farmers globally.
- Total world cocoa production remains relatively small, at about 5 million tons annually. (Source: Statista)
- Despite its modest production volume, cocoa commands a high value in international trade due to its expensive nature compared to other agricultural commodities.
- The Global Cocoa Market size could reach $38.3 billion by 2030, rising at a market growth of 4.8% CAGR during the forecast period. (Source: International Cocoa Organization)
KEY FUNDAMENTALS:
- TOP COCOA PRODUCERS (tons): 1. Ivory Coast - 2.200m, 2. Ghana - 1.100m, 3. Indonesia - 0.667m, 4. Ecuador - 0.337m, 5. Cameroon - 0.300m
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce over 60% of the world's cocoa, are facing severe harvest problems.
- The world is facing the largest cocoa supply deficit in more than 60 years and consumers could start to see the effect at the end of this year or early 2025.
- Issues such as black pod disease, swollen shoot virus, and ageing trees have impacted cocoa yields, exacerbated by heavy rains and El Niño weather conditions.
- CONSUMER TRENDS:
- Traditional consumer markets for cocoa include Europe, North America, and South America, where consumption has shown stagnation in recent years.
- However, the market is experiencing growth driven by rising consumption in Asia, reflecting changing consumer preferences and increasing demand in emerging economies.
NEWS AND EVENTS:
- EVENT (WORLD COCOA CONFERENCE - APRIL 21-24, 2024 BRUSSELS, BELGIUM): The World Cocoa Conference (WCC), established by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) in 2012 is a biannual conference established to assess the global cocoa economy, tackle contemporary challenges, and devise solutions. Recognized as the premier forum for the global cocoa sector, the WCC attracts over 1,500 delegates from governments, trade and industry, as well as producers. Any major announcement at this conference could have an impact on Cocoa prices.
- EVENT (ICCO MONTHLY COCOA MARKET REPORT – MARCH 2024 (EXPECTED: APRIL 22-30)): The ICCO Monthly Cocoa Market Report is a publication by the International Cocoa Organization, providing updates and analysis on the global cocoa market, including production, consumption, trade volumes, trends, prices, and forecasts. It's a key resource for industry stakeholders to monitor market dynamics. Information from this report could impact the price of Cocoa.
- EVENT (109th REGULAR SESSION OF THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA COUNCIL - APRIL 22-27, 2024): The 109th Regular Session of the International Cocoa Council (ICC) is a meeting convened by the ICC, the main governing body of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). It addresses key cocoa industry issues like market trends, sustainability, policies, and economics. These sessions are crucial for collaboration, decision-making, and setting agendas within the global cocoa community. Any major decision at this council could have an impact on cocoa prices.
PRICE ACTION AND VOLATILITY
PRICE ACTION: Cocoa prices exhibit high volatility, experiencing significant fluctuations over short periods. Cocoa is currently trading at 10,670. It recently posted an all-time high of 10,771 (April 11th, 2024). Cocoa prices have gone up ~185% since the beginning of 2024 and are up ~280% from one year ago. However, the price could decline.
COCOA (#COCOA) April 15, 2024
Current Price:10,670.00
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
15,000.00 |
|
|
13,000.00 |
|
|
11,500.00 |
|
|
9,850.00 |
|
|
9,500.00 |
|
|
9,300.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
43,300.00 |
23,300.00 |
8,300.00 |
-8,200.00 |
-11,700.00 |
-13,700.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
40,638.77 |
21,867.98 |
7,789.88 |
-7,696.03 |
-10,980.91 |
-12,857.99 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
34,704.13 |
18,674.51 |
6,652.29 |
-6,572.15 |
-9,377.33 |
-10,980.29 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
59,503.08 |
32,018.98 |
11,405.90 |
-11,268.48 |
-16,078.20 |
-18,826.61 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT+1) 15/04/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail