Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
MIDDLE EASTERN CONFLICT:
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS: ISRAELI EXPANDS GAZA OPERATIONS AFTER DECLARING WAR ON HAMAS: Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. The Israeli army has expanded operations in Gaza, while also exchanging fire with Hezbollah forces in the south of Lebanon. Tensions continue to escalate, after prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that there will be no ceasefire, and the war will continue.
- BANK OF AMERICA SEES $250 A BARREL IF ISRAEL RETALIATES AGAINST IRAN: Iran is a major oil producer, and its proxies include Hamas and the Hezbollah, militant organizations that are respectively based in Gaza and Lebanon and have stated aims to destroy Israel. If Israel goes into direct conflict with Iran, the Hormuz Strait could be closed by Iran, which sees around 15.5 million barrels of oil per day exported through the strait.
HISTORY OF OIL PRICE REACTION TO WAR CONFLICTS IN OIL RICH REGIONS:
Source I: Wikipedia; Source II: Bloomberg; Source III: Investing.com; Source IV: Meta Trader 4 Platform;
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
OIL MARKETS ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO DEFICIT:
- OPEC+ TO BE CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 4.66 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 2023 AFTER SAUDI ARABIA PLEDGED AN ADDITIONAL 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF PRODUCTION CUTS IN 2023. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. Those cuts could be extended until the end of 2024.
- RUSSIA EXTENDED EXPORTS CUTS OF 300,000 until the end of 2023. They will keep oil production cuts of 500,000 barrels per day until December 2024. UPDATE (SEPTEMBER 21): Russia banned gasoline and diesel exports in another sign of potentially tighter markets coming through.
- SAUDI ARABIA EXTENDED ITS CRUDE OIL OUTPUT CUT OF 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY UNTIL THE END OF 2023. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, extended earlier its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to September, which cuts originally started in July this year.
- DEFICIT CREATION: FALLING SUPPLY AMID RISING DEMAND COULD CREATE A DEFICIT OF 3.3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q4 OF 2023. The above analyzed points show that demand could be expected to outpace supply, creating a hole that is known as deficit. According to OPEC, that deficit could be as much as 3.3 million barrels a day in Q4 of 2023, which is down from a 600,000 barrels a day surplus previously.
ANALYST OPINION:
- Goldman Sachs predicts $100. UBS forecasts $90-$100 a barrel. Bank of America forecasts oil at $100 a barrel. Citigroup said oil could first spike to $100. JPMorgan said prices could go above $100 if OPEC+ keeps cuts in place.
Crude Oil, November 9, 2023
Current Price:75.00
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
150.00 |
|
|
125.00 |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
68.00 |
|
|
67.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
75,000.00 |
50,000.00 |
15,000.00 |
-5,000.00 |
-7,000.00 |
-8,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
70,096.73 |
46,731.16 |
14,019.35 |
-4,673.12 |
-6,542.36 |
-7,476.98 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
60,984.53 |
40,656.36 |
12,196.91 |
-4,065.64 |
-5,691.89 |
-6,505.02 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
103,423.88 |
68,949.25 |
20,684.78 |
-6,894.93 |
-9,652.90 |
-11,031.88 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 9/11/2023
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- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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