Crude Oil

Posebna poročila - 11/03/2024

11 marec, 2024

Spodnji pimer uporablja Pogodbe o razliki (CFD pogodbe). Kalkulacije se nanašajo na ceno določenega instrumenta na spodaj omenjeni dan ter kažejo na morebitno priložnost za dobiček ali izgubo. Ni nobenih zagotovil ali jamstev glede točnosti in popolnosti teh informacij, zato vsaka oseba, ki jo vodijo te informacije, to stori na lastno odgovornost.

Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS

ISRAEL- HAMAS WAR ESCALATES AS CEASFIRE NEGOTIATIONS FAILED: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said that pre-Ramadan truce negotiations had failed because Israel refused to promise a permanent ceasefire. The comments came a day after Israel’s Mossad intelligence service issued a rare statement blaming Hamas for the impasse. According to Reuters, Israel is expected to go after the remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah despite strong international criticism and is preparing a plan to get civilians out of harm’s way. Israel is preparing for a new ground assault on Rafah, a small city on the southern border with Egypt where over half of Gaza's 2.3 million people are now living, mostly in makeshift tents. Egypt warned of "dire consequences" of a potential Israeli military assault on Rafah.
RED SEA, SUEZ CANAL WERE AVOIDED BY SHIPPING AND OIL TANKER COMPANIES. Middle East tensions, compounded by the ongoing Israeli ground offensive of the Gaza Strip, keep many oil investors nervous. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis continue to pose a threat to the many ships transiting through the Red Sea. Some analyses show that around 9 million barrels a day of oil transits through the Red Sea. This is almost 10% of total global oil demand. Therefore, many investors fear the worst: oil delivery delays and higher oil prices thereafter. The Houthis have already claimed responsibility for many attacks on ships bound for Israel and have shown no signs of backing down.

OPEC +:

OPEC EXTENDED ITS CURRENT OIL PRODUCTION CUT POLICY INTO Q2 OF 2024, WHILE RUSSIA SAID WILL REDUCE PRODUCTION FROM CURRENT 9.5 TO 9.0 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. According to Bloomberg, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow will reduce its output by 350,000 barrels a day (bpd) in April, by 400,000 bpd in May and then 471,000 bpd in June. Russia also agreed to further trim its export volumes — by 121,000 bpd in April and 71,000 bpd in May, compared to its average sales in the same months last year. Novak said late last month that Russian oil output stood at 9.5 million bpd. Their output is set to drop to almost 9 million bpd in June, if the reduction is implemented as planned.
OPEC OIL MONTHLY REPORT (DECEMBER): A 1.8 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF DEFICIT EXPECTED IN 2024. December oil price drop was mainly driven by selling pressure from speculators.

ANALYST EXPECTATIONS 2024

CITIGROUP: OIL COULD HIT $100 WITHIN THE NEXT 12- 18 MONTHS. According to CNBC, the catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts and supply disruptions from key oil-producing regions. Major oil producer Iraq has been impacted by the conflict and any further escalation could hurt other major OPEC+ suppliers in the region.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

TECHNICAL REVIEW:

SUPPORT AT $70: CRUDE OIL HAS TESTED $70 OR NEAR NINE TIMES SINCE NOVEMBER 2021. After testing the region, Crude oil would come back up above the mark of $70, to target the $80- $100 range.

Graph (Weekly): Crude Oil (November 2021- March 2024)

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Crude Oil, March 11, 2024
Current Price: 77.30

Crude Oil	Weekly
Trend direction	UP
Resistance 3	100.00
Resistance 2	90.00
Resistance 1	83.00
Support 1	72.50
Support 2	71.00
Support 3	70.00

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

Crude Oil
Pivot Points	Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
Profit or loss in $	22,700	12,700	5,700	-4,800	-6,300	-7,300
Profit or loss in €²	20,761	11,615	5,213	-4,390	-5,762	-6,677
Profit or loss in £²	17,686	9,895	4,441	-3,740	-4,908	-5,688
Profit or loss in C$²	30,631	17,137	7,691	-6,477	-8,501	-9,850

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT) 11/03/2024
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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. See full risk warning

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CFDs and margin FX are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. You do not own, or have any rights to, the underlying assets. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This information is intended to be general in nature and is not financial product advice. Any advice contained on this website or provided to you by Fort Securities Australia Pty Ltd is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of the information provided and the nature of the relevant financial product having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We encourage you to obtain independent financial advice and consider our Financial Services Guide (FSG), Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), and Target Market Determination (TMD) to determine if this product is suitable for you before deciding to enter into or obtain any financial products issued by us.

This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade Australia accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

Fort Securities Australia Pty. Ltd (T/A Fortrade Australia) |ABN: 33 614 683 831 | AFSL number: 493520

Risk warning Privacy policy

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Fortrade Canada Limited is an Order Execution Only broker, and does not provide investment advice or recommendation. Fortrade is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Fortrade Canada Limited is authorised to provide CFD trading services in all provinces in Canada except Quebec. Residents of Alberta province are required to be Accredited Investors to trade CFDs.

Risk warning Privacy policy

Fortrade Canada Limited, 1200 Waterfront Centre, 200 Burrard Street, P.O. Box 48600, Vancouver BC V7X 1T2, Canada Email: [email protected]
Fortrade Canada Limited is regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Company registration number: BC1148613.
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Regulated and supervised by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) with CIF license number 385/20.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex and highly speculative instruments, which come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing all your invested capital. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. These products may not be suitable for all clients, therefore ensure, that you understand the risks and seek independent advice. Should you proceed with investment in CFDs on virtual currencies, please note, that the values are highly volatile and may result in a significant loss for a short period of time. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or Belgium and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Risk warning | Privacy policy

Authorised and regulated by Financial Services Commission, Mauritius (FSC), SEC-2.1B investment dealer number: GB21026472.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Be aware, as a retail client you can lose all, but not more than the balance of your trading account due to Fortrade’s negative balance protection.

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CFD so zapleteni instrumenti in predstavljajo tveganje za hitro izgubijo denarja, zaradi finančnega vzvoda. 77% maloprodajnih računov investitorjev izgubi denar pri trgovanju CFD s tem ponudnikom. Vi biste morali vzeti v poštev kako CFD delujejo in če si lahko privoščite visoko tveganje zaradi mogoče izgube denarja. Svoja sredstva lahko izgubite, vendar zgolj v višini vašega depozita. Ti proizvodi morda ne bodo primerni za vse stranke, zato morate biti prepricani, da ste razumeli tveganje. Poišcite tudi neodvisen nasvet. To gradivo ni ne ponudba, ne povpraševanje in ne transakcija glede kateregakoli financnega instrumenta. Fortrade ne sprejme nobene odgovornosti za kakršnokoli uporabo teh komentarjev in tudi ne za posledice, ki lahko iz tega izvirajo. Ni nikakršnega zagotovila in ne garancije glede tocnosti ali popolnosti teh podatkov. Posledicno vsaka oseba, ki se ravna po njih, to dela popolnoma na lastno odgovornost.

Informacije na tej strani niso naslovljene na prebivalce Združenih držav Amerike ali Belgije ter niso namenjene za distribucijo ali uporabo s strani katerekoli osebe v katerikoli državi ali pristojnosti, kjer bi bila takšna distribucija ali uporaba v nasprotju z lokalnimi zakoni ali predpisi.

Poglejte celotno opozorilo o tveganjih. Pravilnik o zasebnosti

Pogodbe za razliko (CFD-ji) in finančni trgi z maržo so produkti z vzvodom ter predstavljajo visoko stopnjo tveganja za vaš kapital. Trgujte zgolj z denarjem, ki ga lahko izgubite. Zavedati se morate, da: Lahko izgubite vse, toda ne več od stanja na vašem računu za trgovanje. Niste lastnik ter nimate nobenih pravic do osnovnih finančnih instrumentov. Pretekli rezultati niso zagotovilo za rezultate v prihodnosti. To so splošne informacije in ne predstavljajo nasveta glede finančnih produktov. Vsi nasveti, navedeni na tej spletni strani, ali ki vam jih nudi družba Fort Securities Australia Pty Ltd, so zgolj splošni nasveti ter so bili sestavljeni brez obzira na vaše cilje, finančno situacijo ali potrebe. Preden sprejmete odločitev na podlagi katerihkoli informacij morate razmisliti o primernosti navedenih informacij ter o naravi ustreznega finančnega produkta glede na svoje cilje, finančno situacijo in potrebe. Svetujemo vam, da poiščete neodvisno finančno svetovanje ter upoštevate naš Priročnik za finančne storitve (FSG) in Izjavo o razkritju produktov (PDS), preden se odločite za sodelovanje ali nakup finančnih produktov z naše strani.

Informacije na tej strani niso namenjene prebivalcem Združenih držav Amerike ali Belgije, prav tako niso namenjene distribuciji ali uporabi s strani katerekoli osebe v katerikoli državi ali pristojnosti, kjer takšna distribucija ali uporaba ne bi bila skladna z lokalnimi zakoni ali predpisi.

Fort Securities Australia PTY. LTD. (T/A Fortrade Australia) | ABN: 33 614 683 831 | AFSL number: 493520.

Poglejte celotno opozorilo o tveganjih. Pravilnik o zasebnosti

Družbo Fortrade Cyprus Ltd ureja in nadzoruje Ciprska komisija za vrednostne papirje in borzo s številko licence CIF 385/20.

Opozorilo o tveganju: Pogodbe za razliko (CFD-ji) so zapleteni instrumenti, ki zaradi vzvoda vključujejo visoko stopnjo tveganja, da hitro izgubite denar. Razmisliti morate o tem, če razumete pogodbe za razliko in če si lahko privoščite tveganje, da izgubite ves denar. Ne pozabite: izgubite lahko vse, vendar ne več od stanja na vašem računu za trgovanje. 76% računov majhnih vlagateljev na drobno izgubi denar pri trgovanju s CFD-ji pri tem ponudniku. Ti produkti morda niso primerni za vse stranke, zato zagotovite, da razumete tveganja in poiščite neodvisen nasvet. Če bi nadaljevali z investicijo v virtualno valuto CFD upoštevajte, da so vrednosti izredno spremenljive in lahko predstavljajo velike izgube v zelo kratkem časovnem obdobju. To gradivo ne predstavlja ponudbe ali napeljevanja k nakupu kateregakoli finančnega instrumenta. Fortrade ne sprejema odgovornosti za uporabe teh informacij in za morebitne posledice. Ne podajamo zagotovil ali jamstev glede točnosti ali popolnosti teh informacij; posledično vsaka oseba, ki sprejema odločitve na podlagi teh informacij, to počne na lastno tveganje. Informacije na tej strani niso naslovljene na prebivalce ZDA, ali Belgija ter niso namenjene za distribucijo ali uporabo s strani katerekoli osebe v katerikoli državi ali pristojnosti, kjer bi bila takšna distribucija ali uporaba v nasprotju z lokalnimi zakoni ali predpisi.

Izjava o razkritju tveganj | Pravilnik o zasebnosti

Pooblaščena za in ureja Komisija za finančne storitve, Mauritius (FSC), številka investicijskega trgovca SEC-2.1B: GB21026472.

Opozorilo o tveganju: CFD-ji so zapleteni instrumenti z visokim nivojem tveganja izgube denarja zaradi finančnega vzvoda. Imejte v mislih, da lahko izgubite vsa sredstva, toda ne več kot imate na svojem trgovalnem računu, zaradi zaščite pred negativno bilanco, ki Vam jo zagotavlja Fortrade.

Izjava o razkritju tveganj | Pravilnik o zasebnosti

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