Crude Oil weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS
- ISRAEL IS EXPECTED RETALIATE AGAINST IRAN: According to Reuters, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours to weigh a response to Iran's weekend missile and drone attack. Military Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Israel would respond. Despite pressure from allies not to escalate, the cabinet is now debating the timing and scope of the response.
- IRAN CONDUCTED STRIKES ON ISRAEL. ISRAEL IS EXPECTED TO RETALIATE. FEARS OF A FULL-BLOWN WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN CONTINUE TO RISE. The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades. In total, around 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel by Iran. Most of the more than 300 Iranian munitions, the majority of which are believed to have been launched from inside of Iran’s territory during a five-hour attack, were intercepted before they got to Israel, more than 1,100 miles (1,770 kilometres) from their launch points.
- ISRAEL- HAMAS WAR ESCALATES AS CEASFIRE NEGOTIATIONS BRING NO BREAKTHROUGH: Israel will push on with its offensive against Hamas, including into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, despite growing international pressure to stop, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Israel’s military intends to direct a significant portion of Rafah’s population of 1.4 million toward humanitarian islands in central Gaza ahead of Israel’s planned ground offensive.
SCENARIOS: POTENTIAL OIL PRICE REACTIONS IN CASE OF MIDDLE-EAST ESCALATION
- In a “small disruption” scenario where global oil supply could be reduced by up to 2 million barrels per day, oil prices could initially increase to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel. However, the price could decline.
- The “medium disruption” scenario—roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003—would take up to 5 million bpd off global oil supply and could see oil prices between $109 and $121 a barrel. However, the price could decline.
- In a “large disruption” scenario—comparable to the Arab oil embargo in 1973—global oil supply would shrink by up to 8 million bpd and this could push prices surging between $140 and $157 a barrel. However, the price could decline.
SOURCE: WORLD BANK
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- CITIGROUP: OIL COULD HIT $100 WITHIN THE NEXT 12- 18 MONTHS. According to CNBC, the catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts and supply disruptions from key oil-producing regions.
- GOLDMAN SACHS SEES OIL AT $100 if a more severe conflict between Iran and Israel occurs.
- JP MORGAN SEES OIL AT $100 BY SEPTEMBER. Moscow’s decision to reduce oil output is likely to drive the price of oil to $100 a barrel this year unless other suppliers take action, J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research said Wednesday in a report.
- BANK OF AMERICA SEES OIL AT $95. According to the Yahoo Finance, the bank raised its oil price forecast for several reasons, including increased geopolitical tensions between Western nations and the oil-producing countries of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
- MORGAN STANLEY RAISED ITS OIL PRICE TARGET $94. Morgan Stanley lowered its supply forecast for OPEC and Russia by 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day and sees a modest deficit in the second quarter, increasing to a larger deficit in the third quarter as demand ramps up.
Crude Oil, April 16, 2024
Current Price: 84.30
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
100 |
|
|
95 |
|
|
90 |
|
|
80 |
|
|
79 |
|
|
78 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,700 |
10,700 |
5,700 |
-4,300 |
-5,300 |
-6,300 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
14,758 |
10,058 |
5,358 |
-4,042 |
-4,982 |
-5,922 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
12,607 |
8,592 |
4,577 |
-3,453 |
-4,256 |
-5,059 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
21,637 |
14,747 |
7,856 |
-5,926 |
-7,304 |
-8,683 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:10 (GMT) 16/04/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail