EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE PROGRESS
- EVENT (EXPECTED BY AUGUST 1): OPTIMISM REMAINED HIGH THAT THE E.U. AND THE U.S.A. WILL SOON ANNOUNCE A TRADE DEAL. EU officials have secured a three-week extension until August 1. Negotiators continued to talk almost every day in order to clinch a trade deal, focused on securing immediate tariff relief and a stand‑still clause to prevent further escalation. Even German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also expressed optimism that a deal could be reached in July.
GEOPOLITICS: US TAX CUT BILL
- BREAKING (JULY 4): U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SIGNED THE NEW TAX BILL INTO LAW. The new “Big Beautiful Bill” has been signed into law. The bill includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts aimed at boosting the U.S. economy. It is expected to serve as a significant economic stimulus. This is the largest fiscal package since the COVID-19 era and substantially larger than Trump’s 2017 tax cuts ($1.5 trillion in 2017).
- STATISTICS (2017 – 2018): EUR/USD ROSE 3.41% WITHIN ONE MONTH AFTER US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SIGNED THE TAX CUT BILL ON DECEMBER 22, 2017.
Data Source: Meta Trader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JULY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (JUNE): The U.S. is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of June. The CPI inflation data from the last month of March came out at 2.4%, below the estimate of 2.5%. If this trend persists, the dollar could experience downward pressure as markets anticipate potential monetary policy adjustments.
- THURSDAY, JULY 17, AT 10:00 GMT+1: EUROZONE INFLATION (CPI) (JUNE): Inflation in the euro area will be in focus. If the actual number comes in higher, it could support the euro, as markets could reduce expectations of ECB rate cuts. A strong CPI reading could be positive for the EUR/USD.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- LONGER-TERM TREND LINE: The black trend line depicted by the chart below shows that EUR/USD prices have maintained their uptrend in general since January 2025.
- DAILY MOVING AVERAGES POINT TO UPTREND: EUR/USD has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, pointing to an ongoing uptrend. However, EUR/USD can change its trend if prices fall below the 20- and 50-day moving averages.
GRAPH (Weekly): January 2024 – July 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, July 14, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1650
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1850 |
|
|
1.1760 |
|
|
1.1550 |
|
|
1.1500 |
|
|
1.1450 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
3,500 |
2,000 |
1,100 |
-1000 |
-1,500 |
-2,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
2,996 |
1,712 |
942 |
-856 |
-1,284 |
-1,712 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
2,597 |
1,484 |
816 |
-742 |
-1,113 |
-1,484 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
4,789 |
2,736 |
1,505 |
-1,368 |
-2,052 |
-2,736 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 14/07/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.