EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE PROGRESS
- BREAKING (JULY 27): E.U. AND U.S. ANNOUNCED A TRADE DEAL TO DE-ESCALATE TRADE TENSIONS. According to Reuters, the U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods (half the threatened rate of 30%) and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, AUGUST 5 AT 13:00 GMT+1: US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SPEAKS. Mr. Trump is expected to keep pressure high on the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell in order to push them to cut the benchmark interest rates. Lower rates tend to have a negative impact on the US dollar, which in turn could support the EUR/USD currency pair.
- THURSDAY, AUGUST 7 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. A higher-than-expected reading could prove negative for the US Dollar, because it will increase the odds of an interest rate cut by the FED. This data measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The data for the previous week stood at 218.000, which was higher than the week before (217.000)
- TUESDAY, AUGUST 12 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (JULY). A lower-than-expected reading could be negative for the US Dollar, because it could point to the FED cutting interest rates sooner and more aggressively. This index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The data for the previous month (June) came in at 2.7%.
- FRIDAY, AUGUST 15 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (JULY). A lower-than-expected reading could prove negative for the US Dollar, because it could motivate the FED to cut interest rates to stimulate economic activity. This data measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The number for the previous month (June) stood at 3.92%.
CENTRAL BANKS:
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. After some weaker-than-expected employment market data in July and downward revisions to June figures, markets have increased their expectations for an interest rate cut in September, expected to be followed by another in December. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, and according to market expectations, it is expected to decline to 4% by the end of 2025. This could put negative pressure on the US dollar, and in turn support the EUR/USD currency pair.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND CHANNEL: The black trend lines depicted by the chart below show that EUR/USD prices have maintained their uptrend in general since January 2025. However, the price could decline.
- 100-DAILY MOVING AVERAGE (MA): EUR/USD has recently returned above its 100-Day Moving Average, confirming that positive sentiment continues to prevail, which has been in place since January 2025. However, EUR/USD can change its trend if prices fall back below the 100-Day Moving Average.
GRAPH (Daily): December 2024 – August 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, August 5, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1532
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1850 |
|
|
1.1700 |
|
|
1.1400 |
|
|
1.1350 |
|
|
1.1300 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
4,680 |
3,180 |
1,680 |
-1,320 |
-1,820 |
-2,320 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
4,058 |
2,757 |
1,457 |
-1,144 |
-1,578 |
-2,012 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
3,526 |
2,396 |
1,266 |
-995 |
-1,371 |
-1,748 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
6,459 |
4,389 |
2,319 |
-1,822 |
-2,512 |
-3,202 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 05/08/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.