Gold Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS: According to Reuters, Israel will go after the remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah despite strong international criticism and is preparing a plan to get civilians out of harm’s way, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Rafah is a small city on the southern border with Egypt where over half of Gaza's 2.3 million people are now living. Egypt warned of "dire consequences" of a potential Israeli military assault on Rafah, which lies near its border. Additionally, tensions are also escalating between Israel and Hezbollah which could spread the conflict further across the region.
- ELECTION YEAR IN THE US: The United States Election Year has statistically been favorable for gold, rising on average 9.94%. According to the last five election cycles, gold prices have risen on average 9.94%, with the commodity rising 11.96% on average when Democrats win and 6.91% on average with a Republican victory.
Source: Bloomberg and MT4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
EVENTS:
- EVENT (CORE PCE PRICE INDEX YEAR-ON-YEAR FOR FEBRUARY- MARCH 29, 2024): The Core PCE Price Index is a key inflation metric that the Federal Reserve tracks in order to inform its interest rate policy. The Core PCE Price Index has been trending lower, reporting lower numbers since October 2023. Should the Core PCE Price Index come in lower than expected, this could be a bullish catalyst for gold, as the US dollar would likely weaken.
- US NFP and Unemployment (Friday, April 5th, 2024): The United States will be releasing nonfarm payrolls and unemployment. Nonfarm payrolls have been trending lower recently, while unemployment has been inching higher. If the Nonfarm payrolls continue to fall while unemployment rises, there could be extended US dollar weakness and may push gold higher.
- CENTRAL BANK GOLD BUYING CONTINUES, WITH 2023 THE SECOND HIGHEST GOLD BUYING YEAR IN HISTORY: Central Banks continue their strong gold buying trends, as 2023 recorded the second largest gold buying haul in history, falling short of the record 2022 haul by just 45 tons. Central Banks continue to buy gold as economic uncertainties remain at the forefront of their concern.
ANALYST OPINION
- CITIGROUP: GOLD COULD HIT $3000 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. Gold could rise 50% if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession. However, the price could also decline further. Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.
GOLD, March 21, 2024
Current Price: 2195
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
2500 |
|
|
2350 |
|
|
2270 |
|
|
2120 |
|
|
2100 |
|
|
2080 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot
|
Gold |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
30,500.00 |
15,500.00 |
7,500.00 |
-7,500.00 |
-9,500.00 |
-11,500.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
27,997.19 |
14,228.08 |
6,884.56 |
-6,884.56 |
-8,720.44 |
-10,556.32 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
23,887.00 |
12,139.30 |
5,873.85 |
-5,873.85 |
-7,440.21 |
-9,006.57 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
41,162.80 |
20,918.80 |
10,122.00 |
-10,122.00 |
-12,821.20 |
-15,520.40 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT) 21/03/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.