GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
US FDERERAL RESERVE:
- EVENT: WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION. PRESS CONFERENCE (19:30 GMT+1). After some weaker-than-expected employment market data in July and August, markets are expecting an almost certain interest rate cut by the FED in September, with more cuts by the end of 2025. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, and according to market expectations, at least two more interest rate cuts could happen by the end of 2025.
MARKET EXPECTATIONS (WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17): US FEDERAL RESERVE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE DECEMBER 2024 TO BRING DOWN RATES FROM THE CURRENT 4.50% TO AT LEAST 4.25% (Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
MARKET EXPECTATIONS (AFTER WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17): US FEDERAL RESERVE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE MORE INTEREST RATE CUTS BY THE END OF 2025 TO BRING RATES DOWN TOWARDS 3.75% (Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
TABLE (MOST RECENT INTEREST RATE DECISIONS): US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE POLICY SINCE JULY 2024
Data Source: Bloomberg Terminal; CMEGROUP.COM;
- STATISTICS (2000 - 2025): GOLD PRICE REACTION WITHIN 3, 6, 12 MONTHS AFTER THE FIRST RATE CUT BY FEDERAL RESERVE AS A NEW RATE CUT CYCLE BEGINS. Gold prices rose 3.61% on average within the first 3 months after the first rate cut of the cycle took place. Within the first 6 months, gold prices rose 16.01% on average. Gold price rose nearly 26% on average within the first 12 months after the first cut.
Date Source: Meta Trader 4
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- PYSCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT: $3,600 - $3,500. After hitting fresh all-time highs ($3,674.16), gold prices have recently traded above the level of $3600, which has now become its next psychological support down to $3,500.
- UPTREND SINCE JAUNUARY 2025: Gold prices have been trading in uptrend, as depicted by the daily chart below and the solid black uptrend line on the same chart.
- ANALYSTS’ OPINION: Commerzbank forecasts $3,800; Goldman Sachs forecast 3,700, but under certain circumstances Goldman Sachs forecasts $5,000; Bank of America forecasts $4,000. J.P. Morgan forecasts $4,000.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GOLD, September 15, 2025.
Current Price: 3,640
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
4,000 |
|
|
3,800 |
|
|
3,700 |
|
|
3,585 |
|
|
3,570 |
|
|
3,550 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
36,000 |
16,000 |
6,000 |
-5,500 |
-7,000 |
-9,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
30,667 |
13,630 |
5,111 |
-4,685 |
-5,963 |
-7,667 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
26,485 |
11,771 |
4,414 |
-4,046 |
-5,150 |
-6,621 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
49,799 |
22,133 |
8,300 |
-7,608 |
-9,683 |
-12,450 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT+1) 15/9/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.