Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG UPTREND SINCE MID-APRIL 2025: As shown in the daily chart below, palladium has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising diagonal trendline (orange) since mid-April.
- DAILY MOVING AVERAGES CONFIRM UPTREND: Price is trading well above the 20-day (red), 50-day (blue), and 100-day (green) moving averages, confirming strong bullish momentum and healthy trend structure.
- PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1220, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 179%. Although the price could decline as well.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 – July 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each.
USA: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S BIG TAX CUT BILL SIGNED INTO LAW (JULY 4, 2025)
- TRADITIONAL CAR MAKERS THAT USE PALLADIUM TO BENEFIT: According to CNBC, the new tax cut bill would end tax breaks (subsidies) for consumers who buy or lease Electric Vehicles (EVs) after September 30, 2025. This could decrease consumer demand for Electric Vehicles, pushing consumers towards cars that run on petrol or diesel.
GEOPOLITICS: TRADE PROGRESS
- USA-CHINA TRADE DEAL SIGNED (JUNE 27): BETTER PALLADIUM DEMAND OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED. President Trump announced that the United States and China have signed a trade agreement, aiming to de-escalate tensions between the world’s two largest economies. For commodities, the agreement is particularly supportive of palladium prices, as improved U.S.-China relations raise expectations for stronger Chinese industrial demand, especially in the automotive sector.
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR
- BREAKING (MONDAY, JULY 14): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP THREATENED 100% TARIFFS ON RUSSIAN GOODS AND HIGH SECONDARY TARIFFS FOR COUNTRIES THAT BUY RUSSIAN GOODS IF NO CEASEFIRE DEAL IS REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT 50 DAYS. Trump gave the Russian president a new deadline of 50 days to make peace or face 100% tariffs on Russian goods, and more importantly, sweeping secondary tariffs, suggesting trade sanctions would be imposed on countries that continue to pay for Russian oil and other commodities.
EVENTS (USA):
- THURSDAY, JULY 17 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (JUNE): A lower-than-expected reading could be positive for palladium, because it could point to the FED cutting interest rates sooner in order to stimulate economic activity. (PREVIOUS: 3.29%)
Palladium, July 15, 2025
Current Price: 1,220
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1,400 |
|
|
1,350 |
|
|
1,300 |
|
|
1,150 |
|
|
1,120 |
|
|
1,100 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
PALLADIUM |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
18,000 |
13,000 |
8,000 |
-7,000 |
-10,000 |
-12,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
15,398 |
11,121 |
6,843 |
-5,988 |
-8,554 |
-10,265 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
13,385 |
9,667 |
5,949 |
-5,205 |
-7,436 |
-8,923 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
24,635 |
17,792 |
10,949 |
-9,580 |
-13,686 |
-16,423 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:30 (GMT+1) 15/07/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.