PALLADIUM

Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

PALLADIUM: USE AND MARKET SHARE

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.

PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED

• SUPPLY REMAINS TIGHT, SUPPORTING PRICES. Palladium supply is limited, with Russia producing a large share of the global output. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to restrict exports. Nornickel, Russia’s main producer, has signaled that output may remain constrained, keeping the market tight and supporting higher prices.
• STRONG AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND. Palladium is essential for catalytic converters in gasoline and hybrid vehicles. Europe’s softened approach to its 2035 combustion-engine ban allows more cars to remain on the road longer, keeping demand steady.
• MARKET DEFICIT (2025 AND 2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, expects the palladium market to remain in deficit in 2025 and 2026. Overall, the market is projected to post a deficit of around 200,000 ounces in 2025, followed by a deficit of approximately 100,000 ounces in 2026, according to Nornickel estimates.

GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

• RUSSIA-US/UKRAINE/EUROPE TALKS SHOW NO BREAKTHROUGHS, KEEPING PALLADIUM SUPPLY RISKS HIGH. According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin's top foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said that changes made by the Europeans and Ukraine to U.S. proposals for an end to the war in Ukraine did not improve prospects for peace. Ushakov made the remarks after Putin's special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, met in Florida with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on December 21.

RUSSIA IS THE LARGEST PRODUCER OF PALLADIUM IN THE WORLD (43% OF TOTAL GLOBAL SUPPLY).

RUSSIA IS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF PALLADIUM IN THE WORLD (23% OF TOTAL GLOBAL EXPORTS).

EVENTS:

• WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31 AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (DECEMBER). A stronger-than-expected PMI reading would signal improving factory activity in China, the world’s largest consumer of palladium. Rising manufacturing momentum would point to firmer industrial and automotive demand, supporting a bullish outlook for palladium prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• V-SHAPE RECOVERY AND POSITIVE MOMENTUM: As shown on the chart, palladium has formed a V-shaped recovery after establishing a long-term base near the $800–$900 area. The rebound highlights improving market sentiment and renewed interest.
• PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1,880, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 80%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Monthly): August 2016 – December 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Palladium, December 23, 2025.
Current Price: 1,880

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:54 (GMT) 23/12/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.