PALLADIUM

PALLADIUM Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.

GEOPOLITICS: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

• CONFLICT INTENSIFIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST: Iran continues to flood with ballistic missiles and drones the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting shipping and energy exports. As of March 19, both USA and Iran have unilaterally rejected ceasefire talks.

• IMPACT OF WAR ON PALLADIUM: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised energy costs, making palladium production more expensive. At the same time, claims that Russia is supporting Iran could lead to new sanctions or higher tariffs on Russian palladium.

PALLADIUM: MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED

• SUPPLY REMAINS TIGHT. Palladium supply is limited, with Russia producing a large share of the global output. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions continue to restrict exports. Nornickel, Russia’s main producer, has indicated that output may remain constrained, keeping the market tight and supporting higher prices.
• MARKET DEFICIT (2026): Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), the world’s largest palladium producer, expects the palladium market to remain in deficit in 2026. Overall, the market is projected to post a deficit of around 100,000 ounces in 2026, following last year’s deficit of approximately 200,000 ounces, according to Nornickel estimates.

EVENTS:

• SATURDAY, MARCH 31 AT 2:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (MARCH): Manufacturing PMI provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. February data came in at 49, down from January’s 49.3. China is the world's largest consumer of palladium.
• FRIDAY, APRIL 3 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MARCH). Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A weaker-than-expected payroll report and a rising unemployment rate would highlight a softening U.S. labor market, increasing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• PALLADIUM PRICE ABOVE 50-, AND 100-DAILY MOVING AVERAGES: Palladium price has remained above its 50- and 100-day moving averages, indicating a potential uptrend. The trend could reverse if Palladium price goes below these averages.
• SUPPORT AREA: $1350 – $1400. This zone represents its next support area for Palladium prices.
• PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1,446, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 136%. Although, the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Weekly): September 2023 - March 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

Palladium, March 20, 2026
Current Price: 1,446

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT) 20/03/2026

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
• Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.