Wheat Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:
- LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2024/2025: 793.24 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~10%, USA at ~6%, and Ukraine at ~3%.
- LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF A TOTAL 212.31 MILLION TONS (2024/2025): Russia at around 20%, the European Union at 14.13%, Canada at 12.25%, Australia at 11.78%, the USA at 10.58%, and Ukraine at 7.54%.
- RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~30%: Russia and Ukraine account for nearly one-third of total global exports.
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK:
- EVENT (FRIDAY, AUGUST 8): US PRESIDENT TRUMP CONFIRMED WANTS A CEASFIRE DEAL BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE BY AUGUST 8; OTHERWISE, THE USA WILL IMPOSE NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND SECONDARY TARIFFS ON COUNTRIES THAT TRADE WITH RUSSIA. U.S. President Donald Trump has made clear that he wants a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine by August 8. Trump has threatened sanctions on both Russia and buyers of its exports unless progress is made. Trump reiterated that, without a deal, his administration would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian exports.
ONGOING SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: With no resolution, Ukrainian wheat exports remain limited, supporting elevated risk premiums and supply concerns in global wheat markets.
RUSSIAN WHEAT PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 10% of total wheat production in the world, making it the 3rd largest wheat producer in the world after China and India.
RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORTS: Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, responsible for around 20% of total global exports in the world.
IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR:
The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly disrupted the global wheat market, as both countries together account for over 30% of global wheat exports. Key effects include:
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ukraine’s wheat production and exports declined due to damaged infrastructure, blocked ports, and trade restrictions, while Russia’s export taxes and quotas further tightened global supply.
- PRICE VOLATILITY: Wheat prices surged to record highs in 2022, due to concerns over supply shortages. Food inflation increased globally, particularly in wheat-dependent countries in Africa and the Middle East.
- TRADE ROUTE BLOCKADES: The closure of Black Sea ports forced Ukraine to rely on alternative, less efficient land routes, further increasing costs and logistical challenges.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- BREAKING NEWS (AUGUST 6): WHEAT PRICES HAVE HIT THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2024 ($505.38).
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $520 OR NEAR: Since September 2023, Wheat has tested the area around $520 six times, and every time it would recover to levels toward 600 or above. This is the 7th time in the past around two years that wheat prices have tested levels near $520. (Source: Fortrade Meta Trader 4 Platform).
GRAPH (Weekly): August 2022 – August 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
WHEAT, August 6, 2025.
Current Price: 506
|
Wheat |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
580 |
|
|
550 |
|
|
530 |
|
|
485 |
|
|
480 |
|
|
470 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
WHEAT |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,400 |
4,400 |
2,400 |
-2,100 |
-2,600 |
-3,600 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
6,365 |
3,785 |
2,064 |
-1,806 |
-2,237 |
-3,097 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
5,555 |
3,303 |
1,802 |
-1,576 |
-1,952 |
-2,702 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
10,170 |
6,047 |
3,298 |
-2,886 |
-3,573 |
-4,947 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT+1) 06/08/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.