Weekly Special Report: EUR/USD

 

 

U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS:

• BREAKING (NOVEMBER 3): U.S. DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL OF BOTH CHAMBERS OF CONGRESS. Democrats secured major victories in the U.S. midterm elections, taking control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and ending Republican control of Congress. This creates a divided government under President Trump, potentially increasing political uncertainty and making it harder to pass new legislation.
• EVENT (FRIDAY, DECEMBER 11): U.S. GOVERNMENT FACES ANOTHER SHUTDOWN DEADLINE. President Trump signed a temporary funding bill in September, keeping the government operational until December 11, 2026. Congress must reach a new funding agreement before then to avoid another shutdown.
• POSSIBLE EFFECT ON EUR/USD: The Democrats' victory and the risk of another government shutdown could increase political uncertainty and put pressure on the U.S. dollar, supporting EUR/USD. However, if political tensions trigger broader market instability, investors could turn to the dollar as a safe-haven currency, putting downward pressure on the pair.

EVENTS (U.S.):

• FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (OCTOBER). Economists expect the U.S. economy to add 63,000 jobs in October, up from 29,000 previously, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%
• TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10 AT 13:30: U.S. INFLATION (CPI) (OCTOBER).  Lower-than-expected inflation could reduce expectations for another Fed rate hike, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar and supporting a rise in EUR/USD. However, stronger-than-expected inflation could increase expectations for tighter Fed policy and put downward pressure on EUR/USD.

EVENTS (EUROPE):

• MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, EUROGROUP MEETING (BRUSSELS). Eurozone finance ministers will discuss the process of selecting a successor to ECB President Christine Lagarde. Any signals about the future direction of ECB monetary policy could influence the euro.
• WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 11 AT 7:00 GMT, GERMAN INFLATION (FINAL CPI, OCTOBER). Preliminary data showed that German inflation fell from 3.3% to 2.8% in October. The final reading is expected to confirm this decline. An upward revision could support EUR/USD, while a downward revision could weigh on the pair.
• FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13, EU LEADERS SUMMIT (DUBLIN). EU leaders will discuss European competitiveness, technological independence, and cooperation on artificial intelligence. Any major policy announcements or political disagreements could influence the euro.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• BREAKING (OCTOBER 29): EUR/USD PRICE HIT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2025 (1.11029).
• SUPPORT AREA: 1.070 – 1.105. The 1.070–1.105 area is a strong technical support zone for EUR/USD and has been in place since January 2025. The pair is currently trading near this area. However, a sustained break below the support zone could weaken the positive outlook and signal further downside.
• FORECAST: UBS forecasts $1.16;

 

 

GRAPH (Daily): January 2025– November 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
 

EURUSD, November 5, 2026
Current Price:   1.12180

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

 

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot, which is equivalent to 100,000 units
2. Calculations for the exchange rate used as of 11:50 (GMT) 05/11/2026.

 

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