GOLD
September 25, 2026
Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
Weekly Special Report: Gold
U.S. LABOUR MARKET DATA:
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 AT 15:00 GMT+1: U.S. JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (AUGUST). Job openings previously declined to 7.271 million, remaining well below the levels seen in previous years. A further decline could indicate a weakening U.S. labor market, reducing expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes and potentially supporting gold prices.
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 AT 13:15 GMT+1: U.S. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (SEPTEMBER). Private sector employment came in lower than expected in July. Another weak reading could signal a slowing U.S. labor market, reducing expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes and supporting gold prices.
- FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER). The U.S. labor market has shown a clear weakening trend over the past few years, with slower job creation and unemployment currently at 4.1%. The labor market will remain a key focus, and further weakness could reduce expectations of interest rate hikes, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices.
OTHER ECONOMIC CALENDAR EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 AT 15:00 GMT+1: U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (SEPTEMBER). Consumer confidence previously fell to 89.4, continuing a broader weakening trend. Another weak reading could signal softer consumer sentiment, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices.
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. CORE PCE INFLATION (AUGUST). Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, remained at 3.3% year over year in July. A lower than expected reading could reduce expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices.
- THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 15:00 GMT+1: U.S. ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (SEPTEMBER). The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.6 in August from 55.6 previously. Another weaker reading could signal slowing manufacturing activity, weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices.
U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND GOLD PRICE ACTION:
- U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS: NOVEMBER 3, 2026. The midterm elections take place halfway through a US president’s four-year term. This year, they will be held on November 3, 2026. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 members of the Senate. The results will determine which party, the Democrats or the Republicans, controls each chamber of Congress for the following two years. Currently, President Donald Trump is a Republican, while Republicans hold a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress, with 219 seats in the House and 53 seats in the Senate.
- GOLD HAS HISTORICALLY PERFORMED STRONGLY DURING U.S. ELECTION YEARS. Since 2000, gold has risen in 10 of 13 U.S. election years, with an average gain of 11.1%.
- MIDTERM ELECTION YEARS: Gold rose in 4 of 6 midterm election years since 2000, with an average gain of 11.8%.
- WHEN DONALD TRUMP WAS INVOLVED IN ELECTIONS: Donald Trump was involved as a presidential candidate in 2016, 2020, and 2024, and was the sitting president in 2018 during the 2018 Midterm Elections. During U.S. election years involving Donald Trump, gold gained an average of 14.72%.
Data Source: Investing.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION:
- SUPPORT AREA: $4,300 - $4,250. The level of $4,300 is proving to be strong support for Gold and has been in place since early August 2026. The area has already been tested seven times, with gold prices rebounding on an average towards approximately $4,467 after each test. Gold is currently testing this support area for the eighth time.
- GOLD PRICE HIT A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH ON JANUARY 28, 2026 ($5,597.41). Gold price currently trades at around $4,300, and if it fully recovers to its previous all-time high, it could see an upside of around 30%. However, the price could also decline.
- FORECAST: Wells Fargo forecasts $4,900; Bank of America forecasts $4,800; Morgan Stanley forecasts $5,200; UBS forecasts $5,500; JPMorgan forecasts $6,000; Deutsche Bank forecasts $4,800; Citigroup forecasts $5,000; Societe General forecasts $6,000.
GRAPH (Daily): July 2026 – September 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Gold, September 25, 2026
Current Price: 4,300
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Market Trend |
|
|
4,600 |
|
|
4,500 |
|
|
4,400 |
|
|
4,220 |
|
|
4,200 |
|
|
4,180 |
Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
30,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
-8,000 |
-10,000 |
-12,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
26,321 |
17,548 |
8,774 |
-7,019 |
-8,774 |
-10,529 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
22,649 |
15,099 |
7,550 |
-6,040 |
-7,550 |
-9,059 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
42,426 |
28,284 |
14,142 |
-11,314 |
-14,142 |
-16,970 |
1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:15 (GMT+1) 25/09/2026
You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
