Weekly Special Report: Palladium

 

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• PALLADIUM DEMAND: Palladium is primarily used in catalytic converters for petrol and hybrid vehicles to reduce harmful emissions. The automotive sector is expected to account for more than 80% of total palladium demand in 2026.
• MAIN PRODUCERS: Russia accounts for approximately 44% of global mined palladium production, followed by South Africa at around 37%, Canada at 8%, and Zimbabwe at slightly less than 8%.

 

PALLADIUM: SUPPLY OUTLOOK

• RUSSIAN PRODUCTION UNDER PRESSURE: Russia remains a major palladium supplier, with Nornickel accounting for a significant share of global production. Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions pose risks to supply. Nornickel expects its palladium output to decline to around 2.4–2.5 million ounces in 2026, potentially reaching its lowest level in approximately 20 years.

 

EVENTS (U.S.):

• FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 AT 14:45 GMT+1: U.S. SERVICES AND MANUFACTURING PMI (OCTOBER). These indicators measure business activity in the U.S. services and manufacturing sectors. Lower than expected readings could signal weaker economic growth, potentially reducing expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes and supporting palladium prices.
• THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 12:30 GMT+1: U.S. GDP (Q3). The final reading for second-quarter GDP showed economic growth of 2.2%, above expectations of 1.5%. If third-quarter GDP (Q3) growth comes in below expectations, it could raise concerns about the U.S. economy and weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially supporting palladium prices.

 

EVENTS (CHINA):

• SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31 AT 01:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI (OCTOBER). The Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) provides an early indication of activity in China’s manufacturing sector. In September, the index increased from 49.8 to 50.1, in line with expectations. Another stronger-than-expected reading could signal improving industrial activity and demand for palladium, potentially supporting palladium prices.

 

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE:

• WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 AT 18:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Fed interest rate currently stands at 4.00%, with markets expecting that interest rates will remain unchanged at the October meeting. This could put negative pressure on the U.S. dollar, supporting palladium prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• BREAKING (OCTOBER 21): PALLADIUM PRICE HITS ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 16 MONTHS ($1,076).
• SUPPORT AREA: $1,100 - $1,000. Palladium price has tested the $1,100–$1,000 area, which has acted as a strong support zone since mid-2025. However, palladium price could fall further.

GRAPH (Daily):  June 2025 - October 2026                                            

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

 

Palladium, October 21, 2026
Current Price:  1,077

 

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot, which is equivalent to 100 units
2. Calculations for the exchange rate used as of 11:30 (GMT+1) 21/10/2026

 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit