Weekly Special Report: EUR/USD

 

GEOPOLITCS: FRANCE

• OCTOBER 27 – NOVEMBER 3: FRANCE'S 2027 BUDGET DEBATES AND VOTES. France's parliament is expected to resume discussions on the 2027 budget on October 27, when lawmakers are also scheduled to vote on the social security budget. A separate vote on the state budget's tax section is expected on November 3. Progress towards approving the budgets could ease concerns about France's political and financial stability, potentially supporting the euro and the EUR/USD currency pair.

 

EVENTS (U.S.):

• THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS. U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in as expected at 199,000 last week, up from 198,000 the previous week.
• TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27 AT 13:30 GMT+1: CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (OCTOBER). Over the last four months, consumer confidence has been falling, being constantly below expectations. Another weak result may weaken the US dollar, supporting the EUR/USD pair.
• THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 12:30 GMT+1: U.S. GDP (Q3). The final reading for second-quarter GDP showed economic growth of 2.2%, above expectations of 1.5%. If third-quarter GDP (Q3) growth comes in below expectations, it could raise concerns about the U.S. economy and weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially supporting the EUR/USD currency pair.

 

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE:

• WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 AT 18:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Fed raised interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% at its September meeting. Markets widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in October. If the Fed signals that further rate hikes are unlikely, the U.S. dollar could weaken, potentially supporting EUR/USD.

 

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB)

• THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 13:15 GMT+1: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB raised its key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in September, following another increase in June. The main refinancing rate currently stands at 2.65%, while the deposit facility rate is 2.50%.

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• BREAKING (OCTOBER 14): EUR/USD PRICE HIT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2025 (1.11117).
• SUPPORT AREA: 1.1100 – 1.1200. The 1.1100–1.1200 area represents a strong technical and psychological support zone for EUR/USD, which has been in place since May 2025. The pair is currently trading near this area. However, a sustained break below the support zone could weaken the positive outlook and signal further downside. 
• FORECAST: UBS forecasts $1.16;

GRAPH (Daily): December 2024– October 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

 

EUR/USD, October 21, 2026
Current Price:  1.12200

 

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:20 (GMT+1) 21/10/2026

 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit