January 31, 2022
December's PMI printed at 58.7. The consensus forecast for January is 57.5.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
OPEC and Non OPEC Ministers will meet to discuss whether to continue the current OPEC deal of adding 400k of oil output per month to the market.
Possible Influence: Volatile Brent and Crude Oil (WTI) prices
Bank of England set to meet to decide interest rates. Most analysts expect rates to increase from 0.25% to 0.50% and traders will be monitoring the press conference following.
Possible Influence: Volatile GBP and UK stocks
The European Central Bank will meet to decide whether to change rates. No changes in the deposit rate of -0.50 expected. A press conference will follow the meeting.
Possible Influence: Volatile EUR and European stocks
The Unemployment rate for December was 3.9%. It is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% in January. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall to 155,000 for January, lower than December’s figure of 199,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 5.5%, Year-over-Year in December. January’s Core CPI is expected to rise to 5.9%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for December came in at 7.0%, Year-over-Year. The forecast for Top-line CPI for January is 7.2%, Year-over-Year.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
Retail Sales fell 1.9%, Month-over-Month, in December. Retail Sales for January are forecast to rise 0.2%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
4th Quarter earnings reporting season continues in February. Some of the companies reporting in February are Exxon Mobil, AMD, General Motors, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Ford, Spotify, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean, Disney, Twitter, Moderna, Chargepoint, Nvidia, Wamart, and Berkshire Hathaway.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks and Indices
Ukraine has suffered from civil strife since the 2014 coup that overthrew the Kremlin friendly government in favor of the current Western friendly regime. Large swaths of Ukraine are ethnically and culturally Russian. Russia has been amassing troops on its side of the Ukrainian border. The United States has stated that Ukraine is in danger of being invaded by Russia. Russia is demanding that the United States agree that Ukraine will never be admitted into the NATO military alliance. The United States says all countries are free to join NATO if they choose. Western nations have been sending arms to Ukraine and threatening sanctions against Russia if Russian troops cross the border. Some American politicians, including the President of the United States, claim that a Russian incursion is imminent. Russian authorities claim the only way fighting will break out is if it is provoked by Ukraine. Russia supplies 43% of the world’s Palladium and is a significant provider of energy to Europe, including oil and natural gas. Any interruption of any of those Russian commodities would be catastrophic for global economies.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold, Oil, Palladium, and US Stocks
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