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Crude Oil

September 18, 2023

Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.

Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

NEWS:

RUSSIA EXTENDED EXPORTS CUTS OF 300,000 until the end of 2023. They keep oil production cuts of 500,000 barrels per day until December 2024.
SAUDI ARABIA EXTENDED ITS CRUDE OIL OUTPUT CUT OF 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY UNTIL THE END OF 2023. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, extended earlier its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to September, which cuts originally started in July this year.

OIL MARKETS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO DEFICIT:

OPEC+ TO BE CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 4.66 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 2023 AFTER SAUDI ARABIA PLEDGED AN ADDITIONAL 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF PRODUCTION CUTS IN 2023. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. Those cuts will be extended until the end of 2024.
OPEC OIL PRODUCTION AT THE LOWEST since 2019.

CHINA’S ECONOMY TO RECOVER BETTER IN Q3 AND Q4 WITH SURGING OIL DEMAND. Due to additional stimulus packages in China, economists expect the Chinese economy to recover at quicker pace in the second half of the year that started in July.
DEFICIT CREATION: FALLING SUPPLY AMID RISING DEMAND COULD CREATE A DEFICIT OF 3.3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q3 OF 2023. The above analyzed points show that demand could be expected to outpace supply, creating a hole that is known as deficit. According to OPEC, that deficit could be as much as 3.3 million barrels a day in Q4 of 2023, which is down from a 600,000 barrels a day surplus previously.

ANALYST OPINION:

Goldman Sachs predicts $93. UBS forecasts $95 a barrel. Bank of America forecasts oil at $100 a barrel. Standard Chartered forecasts $93.

Crude Oil, September 18, 2023
Current Price: 90.30

Crude Oil	Weekly
Trend direction	UP
Resistance 3	100.00
Resistance 2	97.00
Resistance 1	95.00
Support 1	85.80
Support 2	84.00
Support 3	83.00

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

Crude Oil
Pivot Points	Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
Profit or loss in $	9,700	6,700	4,700	-4,500	-6,300	-7,300
Profit or loss in €²	9,100	6,286	4,409	-4,222	-5,910	-6,848
Profit or loss in £²	7,837	5,413	3,797	-3,636	-5,090	-5,898
Profit or loss in C$²	13,106	9,053	6,350	-6,080	-8,512	-9,863

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 18/09/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.

You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail

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