Weekly Special Report: CRUDE OIL

 

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• RESISTANCE AREA: $100 - $104. Since the Middle East war began on February 28, 2026, crude oil has reached or exceeded the $100 level 11 times, including its latest test. Historically, prices have stayed above $100 for an average of 2.6 days before retreating below this threshold. However, this does not imply the same outcome will follow.

LAST TIME: Crude oil moved above $100 on September 15, remaining above this level for less than two days before retreating below it.

• SUPPORT AREA: $90 - $85. Following previous tests of the $100 level or higher, crude oil has subsequently retreated to an average level of around $87 or lower.

GRAPH (Daily): March 2026 – October 2026

Data Source: Meta Trader 4 Platform

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

 

Crude Oil, October 16, 2026
Current Price:  95.90

DOWNTREND

• U.S.–RUSSIA DIESEL AGREEMENT AND SANCTIONS RELIEF: On October 9, the U.S. temporarily eased restrictions on Russian diesel imports until April 7, 2027. Announced shipments total approximately 13.5 million barrels across the initial and subsequent deliveries.
• G7 STRATEGIC RESERVE RELEASES: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves to help offset supply disruptions.
• SAUDI ARABIA'S OIL EXPORT ROUTE RESTORED: The East-West pipeline provides an alternative route to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and helping maintain crude oil exports.
• MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTS RECOVER: Regional exports have rebounded to approximately 16–19 million barrels per day, approaching the pre-war level of around 20 million barrels per day.
• DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS: Pakistan and Qatar continue efforts to facilitate negotiations between the United States and Iran, potentially easing supply concerns if successful.
• U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS (NOVEMBER 3, 2026): High fuel prices could increase pressure on the U.S. administration to pursue diplomacy and reduce disruptions to global oil supplies.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM, Fox News

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 1000 units
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT+1) 16/10/2026

 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit

 

UPTREND

• YEMENI HOUTHIS–SAUDI ARABIA TENSIONS: Intensifying hostilities between the Yemeni Houthis and Saudi Arabia could increase regional instability and put further upward pressure on crude oil prices.
• STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND BAB EL-MANDEB RISKS: Ongoing security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could threaten shipping routes and oil flows, supporting higher prices.
• U.S.–IRAN CONFLICT: Continued military confrontations between the United States and Iran, including attacks involving oil tankers, could heighten supply concerns and sustain upward pressure on crude oil prices.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, OILPRICE.COM, Fox News

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1.  The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 1000 units
2.  Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT+1) 16/10/2026

 

You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit