Weekly Special Report: EUR/USD

 

 EVENTS (U.S.):

• WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER). Lower-than-expected inflation could reduce expectations for another Fed rate hike, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar and supporting the EUR/USD. Headline inflation (CPI) in the USA currently stands at 3.4%.
• THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. RETAIL SALES (SEPTEMBER). Retail sales provide an important indication of the strength of U.S. consumer spending. A weaker reading could signal slowing economic activity, potentially weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting EUR/USD. Headline retail sales rose 1.2% on a monthly basis in August.
• THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15 AT 13:30 GMT+1: U.S. PRODUCERS’ PRICE INDEX (PPI) INFLATION (SEPTEMBER). Producer prices provide another important indication of inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. A lower-than-expected reading could reduce expectations of further Fed interest rate hikes, potentially weighing on the U.S. dollar and supporting the EUR/USD. Headline PPI in the USA currently stands at 5.4%.

 

EVENTS (EUROPE):

• TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13 AT 07:00 GMT+1: GERMAN INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER). The second and final reading of Germany’s September inflation report is expected to be released on Tuesday. The preliminary reading showed that inflation in Germany rose to 3.3% in September, up from 2.9% in August.
• FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16 AT 10:00 GMT+1: EUROZONE INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER). The second and final reading of the Eurozone’s September inflation report is expected to be released on Friday. The preliminary reading showed that inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August.

 

U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE:

• FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16 AT 04:30 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) CHAIRMAN KEVIN WARSH SPEAKS. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat with IMF (International Monetary Fund) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva during the IMF Annual Meetings. Investors will look for insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, inflation risks and the future path of interest rates.
• WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28 AT 18:00 GMT+1: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE (FED) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Fed interest rate currently stands at 4.00%, with markets expecting that interest rates will remain unchanged at the October meeting. This could put negative pressure on the U.S. dollar.

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• BREAKING (OCTOBER 5): EUR/USD PRICE HIT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2025 (1.11597).
• SUPPORT AREA: 1.1100 – 1.1200. The area between 1.1100 and 1.1200 establishes itself as decent technical and psychological support for EUR/USD, which was last tested in May 2025. The pair is currently trading around that area, and if the support holds, a rebound and renewed upward movement could follow. However, a sustained break below the 1.1100–1.1200 area would weaken the positive outlook and could indicate further downside. 

GRAPH (Daily): January 2025– October 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

 

EUR/USD, October 12, 2026
Current Price:  1.1183

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:40 (GMT+1) 12/10/2026

 

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