VALE SA (#VALE) weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NICKEL MARKET
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MARKET SIZE: The global nickel size was $36.27B in 2021.
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USE: Nickel is one of key metals for electric vehicle (EV) batteries production but also heavily used in the stainless steel sector from the automotive, consumer goods and construction industries. Economists forecast global nickel consumption to rebound year on year due to stainless steel capacity expansions in China and Indonesia but also rise in demand on the global level.
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NICKEL MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY: VALE HOLDS UP 25% OF TOTAL NICKEL MARKET: Recent data showed, that the biggest nickel miners by production were Nornickel with around 28% of production, Vale with around 25% and Glencore with around 13% of global production.
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MARKET POTENTIAL GROWTH: The global consumption is forecasted to rise around 35% between 2020 and 2025. Nickel demand for the EV battery sector is expected to accelerate substantially, with many predicting it to be near 35% of total Nickel demand by 2030.
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EV MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. Nickel is one of key metals for electric vehicle (EV) batteries production.
VALE:
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THE COMPANY: Vale is a Brazilian multinational mining company, one of the biggest producers of iron ore and nickel. In 2020 the company was the second biggest Nickel mining company in the world after Russian Nornickel. The company has seen its profits and cash flows surge over the last two years on the back of strong iron ore pricing, thanks to massive demand from China. With China reopening its economy, the company could see its shares climb in the coming months.
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EVENT: EARNINGS REPORT ON JULY 28. Both Earnings and revenue in the first quarter were better than expected. The company expects iron ore and nickel demand to rise with pandemic fading away.
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CHINA INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT INCREASE IN MAY AND REOPENING OF SHANGHAI. China is by far the biggest Nickel importer in the world importing twice as much as the second placed Japan. Rise in demand in China is increasing the price of Nickel which is in strong correlation with Vale stock price.
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SANCTIONS US AND EU IMPOSED ON RUSSIA. Russia is the third biggest producer of nickel in the world with the EU its biggest importer. Nickel is not included in sanctions but huge problems in logistics due to the sanctions are making Russian export extremely difficult. Vale is the second biggest world producer of nickel after Russian Nornickel.
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ANALYST OPINION: Morgan Stanley target is at $22 on the stock. Jeffries forecasts at $24 a share. Deutsche Bank targets $22 a share. HSBC set a target price of $21.5 a share.
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STOCK PRICE ACTION: Vale stock made its all-time high of $44.15 in May, 2008. The stock currently trades around $14.8 which is 66.7% below the record high. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 196%. In addition, the 52- week high is $23.175.
Vale SA, June 22, 2022
Current Price: 14.30
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VALE |
Weekly |
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Trend direction |
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23.00 |
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|
20.00 |
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|
17.40 |
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|
12.70 |
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12.30 |
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|
11.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $2 |
43,500.00 |
28,500.00 |
15,500.00 |
-8,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-14,000.00 |
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Profit or loss in €2 |
41,154.60 |
26,963.36 |
14,664.28 |
-7,568.66 |
-9,460.83 |
-13,245.16 |
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Profit or loss in £2 |
35,353.78 |
23,162.82 |
12,597.32 |
-6,501.84 |
-8,127.31 |
-11,378.23 |
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Profit or loss in C$ |
56,159.37 |
36,794.07 |
20,010.81 |
-10,328.16 |
-12,910.20 |
-18,074.28 |
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1.00 lot is equivalent of 5 000 units
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Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:42 (GMT+1) 22/06/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail