- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (November) (December 1st at 15:00 GMT)
October’s PMI printed at 60.8. The consensus forecast for November is 61.0.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- OPEC and Non OPEC Ministerial Meeting (December 2nd)
OPEC and Non OPEC Ministers are expected to suspend their monthly production increases of 400,000 barrels per day for at least one month.
Possible Influence: Volatile Brent and Crude Oil (WTI) prices
- U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (November) (December 3rd at 13:30 GMT)
The Unemployment rate for October was 4.6%. It is expected to fall 4.5% in November. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to rise to 550,000 for November, higher than October’s figure of 531,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- The Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (December 7th at 05:30 GMT)
Current rates in Australia are set at 0.10% and no change is forecasted
Possible Influence: Volatile AUDUSD
- Inflation data in US (November) (December 10th at 13:30 GMT)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 4.6%, Year-over-Year in October. November’s Core CPI is expected to rise to 4.7%, Year-over-Year. Top-line CPI for October came in at 6.2%, Year-over-Year. The forecast for Top-line CPI for November is 6.4%, Year-over-Year.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Fed Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (December 15th 19:00 GMT)
Fed expected to hold rates at 0.25% but is likely to say more on tapering and give signals on a possible rate hikes next year in light of new Covid variant
Possible influence: Volatile US dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- European Central Bank Meeting (December 16th 12:45)
ECB expected to keep rates at the current rate of 0%. There will be a press conference following the decision.
Possible influence: Volatile EURUSD
- Bank of England Meeting (December 16th 13:00 GMT)
Bank of England may increase rates from 0.10% to 0.25% after Governor Bailey said it came close to doing this at the November meeting. If it goes ahead it would be the first major central bank to do so.
Possible influence: Volatile GBPUSD
- Retail Sales in US (November) (December 15th at 13:30 GMT)
Retail Sales rose 1.7%, Month-over-Month, in October. Retail Sales for November are forecast to decrease to 1.0%, Month-over-Month.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
- Bank of Japan Meeting (December 17th 03:00 GMT)
Bank of Japan expected to keep rates at -0.1%
Possible Influence: Volatile USDJPY
- U.S. Fiscal Spending and Debt Ceiling (December)
The Democrats passed their Build Back Better bill in the House of Representatives. It now moves to the Senate where it faces opposition from all Republicans and some moderate Democrats. The final version, if it passes, will probably be smaller than the $1.75 trillion version that just passed the House. The other hurdle that Congress is facing in December is the statutory debt ceiling on U.S. debt. If Congress fails to act swiftly, the United States could default on its Treasury obligations in the second half of December. This has never happened in history and would be a catastrophe for the financial markets.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks and Indices, Global Stocks and Indices, Commodities, Currencies
- Earnings (December)
A handful of companies will be reporting quarterly earnings in December. These include Cronos Group, Chargepoint Holdings, Costco, Adobe, Federal Express, and Nike.