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July 2021 EVENTS - 30/06/2021

Micro Analysis

30 June, 2021

For General Information only. Not Intended to Provide Trading or Investment Advice. Your Capital is at Risk.

  • OPEC and Non OPEC Ministerial Meeting (July 1st)

OPEC+ will discuss whether to extend the current deal which has seen production cuts eased to 5.8 million bpd from May to July. Some analysts are predicting that around 500,000 bpd may be added to production from August.

Possible Influence: Volatile Brent and Crude Oil (WTI) prices

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) (July 1st at 15:00 GMT+1)

May’s PMI printed at 61.2. The consensus forecast for June is 61.

Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (June) (July 2nd at 13:30 GMT+1)

The Unemployment rate for May was 5.8%. It is expected to fall to 5.7% in June. Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to print up 690,000 for June, higher than April’s figure of 559,000.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (July 6th at 5:30 GMT+1)

Current rates in Australia are 0.10%. The bank is expected to leave rates unchanged.

Possible Influence: Volatile AUDUSD

  • Inflation data in US (May) (July 13th at 13:30 GMT+1)

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 0.7%, Month-over-Month in May. CPI for May was 0.6%, Month-over-Month. June’s numbers are expected to come in at 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • US EARNINGS SEASON (July 13th- August 31st, 2021)

2nd Quarter earnings season commences in July. It starts with many banks and financials in the middle of the month and closes the month with some of the largest technology names in the market. Notable companies reporting their financials in July include J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, IBM, Netflix, Microsoft, Twitter, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google, McDonalds, Caterpillar, Exxon, and Chevron.

Possible Influence: US Stocks and Indices

  • Bank of Canada Meeting (July 14th at 16:00 GMT+1)

The current rate is 0.25% and is expected to remain at this level.

Possible Influence: Volatile USDCAD

  • Retail Sales in US (May) (July 16th at 13:30 GMT+1)

Retail Sales fell 1.3%, Month-over-Month, in May. They are forecast to rise 0.2%, Month-over-Month in June.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • Bank of Japan Meeting (July 16th at 00:30 GMT+1)

Current rates are -0.10%. The BoJ is expected to leave rates unchanged.

Possible Influence: Volatile USDJPY

  • Lifting of COVID lockdown restrictions in the United Kingdom and the European Union (July 19th)

If health conditions remain stable, the UK is expected to lift the last of its pandemic restrictions on July 19th. This could provide a boost to the UK economy, airliners and the travel industry.

Possible Influence: Volatile British Pound, UK Stocks

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (July 22nd at 13:45 GMT+1)

ECB set to meet to discuss interest rates. No change in deposit rate expected currently at -0.50%.

Possible Influence: Volatile Euro

  • US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 28th at 19:00 GMT+1)

The Fed meets to discuss interest rates which are expected to remain at current levels of 0.25%, but investors will be watching out for talk about future rate movements or possible tapering in the coming months.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • US GDP Growth Rate 2nd Quarter, 1st reading (July 29th at 13:30 GMT+1)

The U.S. GDP for the 2nd Quarter will be posted on July 29th. The final revision of the 1st Quarter was 6.4%, Quarter-over-Quarter. The forecast for the 2nd Quarter is 9.0%, Quarter-over-Quarter.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks

  • U.S. Stimulus (July)

Fiscal politics remain in play. The White House has signed off on a $973 billion compromise infrastructure bill hammered out by 21 Senators of both parties, but it faces opposition from the left wing of the Democratic party. The Democrats are still pushing their $2.3 trillion infrastructure bill, and their $1.8 trillion American Families Plan.

Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks and Indices, Global Stocks and Indices, Commodities, Currencies

  • Iranian and US negotiations on nuclear deal (Talks expected to continue in July)

Talks are stalled right now and Iran is not showing any signs of compliance. Iran just elected a new hard line President and the consensus is the chances of a quick deal, along with Iran joining the legal international oil markets have dropped.

Possible Influence: Volatile Brent, Crude Oil prices

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