This Week
The highlight of the economic week could be on Thursday: Fed Chair Powell is set to speak. Last Friday’s (postponed) US NFP and Unemployment data could be released this week (possibly Friday), but the shutdown makes government economic release schedules unpredictable. This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting decided on an output increase of 137,000 bpd to take effect from November. Traders will continue to monitor geopolitical developments related to Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East after reports outlined that Hamas accepted President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza and that Israeli, Hamas, and US representatives will meet in Egypt for negotiations on Monday.
Stocks
AMERICAN AIRLINES
American Airlines’ price increased 1% to a near one-month high amid recent optimism for the airline industry due to recent solid passenger numbers and lower jet fuel costs, due to falling crude oil prices. On the other hand, the government shutdown could pose challenges to the industry since past history shows that a lack of government employees at airports can create delays and cancellations. American has recently been upgraded by Jefferies and TD Cowen brokerage firms. The company is scheduled to post its earnings results on October 16th.
COINBASE
Coinbase's stock price surged 19% to its highest level in over two months. At the end of the week, the cryptocurrency exchange company announced it was expanding its Samsung Wallet integration, allowing access to over 75 million US Galaxy users. Rothschild brokerage also upgraded the price target of the stock, citing subscription numbers and the recent acquisition of Deribit, a crypto options venue. Bitcoin, whose price is closely correlated with Coinbase, also rose last week.
Commodities
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices sank 6.8%, their worst weekly performance in months, as ‘black gold’ slipped to its lowest level in four months. Prices dropped on reports that OPEC+ could increase output by 500,000 barrels per day over the next three months. The reopening of a major pipeline from Kurdistan to Turkey also added to fears of oversupply, while the IEA stated in a report that the oil market would be oversupplied in 2026.
Gold
Gold prices jumped 3.1% and rose above $3790 for the first time. The government shutdown increased political uncertainty and triggered safe-haven demand as monthly employment data was delayed. Major investment banks, including Bank of America, continued to increase their price targets to $4000, while UBS raised its prediction to $4200. Prices also remain underpinned by heightened global central bank purchases.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices surged 5.0% to a 2-month high after weather forecasts showed cooler-than-average temperatures, which is expected to increase heating demand. A lower-than-expected EIA storage build, suggesting demand is increasing in the US, was a major catalyst last week. At the same time, a drop in US gas output due to seasonal pipeline repairs crimped supply.
USD/CAD
The USD/CAD edged 0.10% higher but climbed to a more than four-month high midweek after the commodity-linked Loonie was pressured by sharply lower oil prices. The Bank of Canada also signaled that it may be ready to continue cutting interest rates if economically warranted. The greenback maintained most of its value, despite mixed (and limited) economic data.
Recap
Last week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.1%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and the Dow Jones was up 1.1%.
US stock indices again struck all-time highs, despite worries over an ongoing US government shutdown. The shutdown had led to the suspension of government economic data, and Friday’s scheduled Nonfarm Payrolls figures were not published. In geopolitics, President Trump unveiled a peace plan for Israel and Hamas, with the latter told they have days to agree or Israel could use whatever military means at its disposal to occupy Gaza. NATO–Russia tensions continued to rise as more NATO countries saw unidentified drones. Crude oil prices sank to multi-month lows, but Natural Gas prices climbed to a fresh two-month peak. Gold prices saw another week in the green with the precious metal hitting a new historical high. Platinum prices edged upward, while Palladium prices declined by Friday’s close.