This Week
Delayed Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be released on Wednesday, while US CPI inflation data will be published on Friday, due to a partial one-day shutdown last week. Both events will be closely watched by skittish traders looking for cues on when the Fed will cut rates this year. The Middle East remains in focus after the US told its citizens to leave Iran, despite negotiations held last week. Talks are expected to continue this week. The earnings season continues with Coca-Cola and Spotify posting results on Tuesday.
Stocks
BOEING
Boeing’s stock price surged 4.74% to record a ten-day high in an eventful week for the airliner. Reports that India was ready to place an order of up to $80 billion in aircraft orders as part of a wider US-India trade deal boosted the stock. Boeing also outlined plans to deliver an upgraded version of its 787 Dreamliner in the first half of this year amid hopes of strengthening sales throughout its fleet. The previous week saw the investment bank JP Morgan raise its price forecast for the company to $270.
AMERICAN AIRLINES
American Airlines’ stock price soared 11.0% to a more than two-week peak by Friday’s close. Mixed earnings were considered an overall positive, with the company’s fourth quarter revenue miss being considered a direct result of the government shutdown, rather than weak company performance. The stock benefited from a rising airline sector as traders shifted away from tech stocks and towards industrials. The airline was supported by stronger-than-expected demand and firm booking data ahead of the spring travel season. JP Morgan also recently upgraded its price target on the stock from $20 to $22.
Commodities
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices increased 0.33% last week, as geopolitical risks continued to be reassessed. Easing US-Iran tensions, following the confirmation of negotiations, pressured prices lower early in the week. But renewed concerns over diplomatic talks, which appeared to be stalling, raised worries that a conflict might impact oil supplies, including routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold
Gold prices jumped 4.74% after the precious metal bounced back after tumbling on Monday following reports of planned talks between the US and Iran. Volatility in stock markets caused traders to pile into safe havens, while markets still anticipate one to two Fed interest rate cuts this year.
SOYBEANS
SOYBEAN prices climbed 5.1% to an almost two-month high after an unexpected phone call was held between President Trump and President Xi of China. Trump outlined that China had committed itself to purchasing 25 million tons of soybeans for next season and could increase soybean purchases for this season to 20 million tons. In previous days, prices had been hampered by increased South American supply and a firmer dollar.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD weakened 0.47% over the past week after the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%, but with a large minority of members arguing for a rate cut, as expectations built that the bank could cut rates at its next meeting in March. The US dollar was broadly steady last week after gains early in the week, but softer US data increased the chances of early interest rate cuts, even if NFP figures were delayed due to an earlier one-day US government shutdown.
Recap
Last week, the S&P 500 declined 0.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.8%, and the Dow Jones was up 2.5%.
US stock indices bounced back from steeper declines on Friday but finished mixed, as expenditure concerns on AI-linked stocks caused a rotation into industrial stocks, pushing the Dow Jones to an all-time high.
Crude oil prices edged higher while natural gas prices fell amid an expected decline in demand as US weather forecasts until mid-February were expected to turn warmer. Gold prices rose, but Silver edged lower, touching its lowest level so far this year. Platinum and Palladium prices grew higher amid market volatility. Negotiations between the US and Iran took place last week, while tripartite negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine ended without agreement. In the earnings season, Amazon posted better than expected results.