OIL MARKETS AS OPEC+ V8 MEETS
Oil markets are known for volatility, and when major producers such as OPEC+ meet, traders watch closely. OPEC+ has spent the past few years trying to balance supply with shifting demand, not always entirely successfully, while other factors such as economic growth, politics, and the weather also influence demand and supply. The world today is arguably as unstable as it has ever been amid concerns over trade conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and connected worries over the global economy. This is why OPEC has an important role to play and why markets take notice of its decisions.
- WHAT IS OPEC AND WHO ARE ITS MEMBERS
OPEC plays a major role in managing global oil supply. Its stated aim is to balance the global oil market. It consists of major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, its de facto leader, and many other Gulf states, including the UAE and some African producers such as Nigeria. In late 2016, Russia joined OPEC+ as a country that participates in OPEC decisions. Together, the cartel accounts for more than 40% of global supply, meaning its decisions are likely to impact oil prices.
- UNDERSTANDING THE V8 – OPEC PRODUCTION LEVELS AND MEETINGS
OPEC has had a dizzying number of working groups, meetings, changing members, and schedules. The cartel changes how many times it meets relatively regularly, which countries will meet, and who will set headline production levels. Currently, the V8, which meets at the beginning of the month, sets production levels. They are: Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. Each month, these countries submit data on actual production. If a country overshoots its target, it commits itself to reducing output in a later month. This is sometimes referred to as compliance. At each meeting, ministers look at oil inventories, demand forecasts, seasonal trends, geopolitical developments, and broader economic indicators. They then decide whether to increase, decrease, or keep production unchanged. The decision impacts global crude prices. The main OPEC meeting attended by top political leaders now takes place every six months.
- THE FEB 1 OPEC+ / V8 MEETING – WHAT WAS DECIDED?
At the February 1 meeting, the V8 decided to keep output for March unchanged, as widely expected. The decision was confirmation of earlier decisions to keep output at current levels for the first quarter of 2026. There was no talk of future policy after March, with the cartel being cautious due to shifting conditions. It’s widely thought that members are quietly satisfied that oil prices have been rising recently.
- OIL PRICES SO FAR IN 2026: GEOPOLITICS AND MARKET FORCES
Even though oil output was steady, oil prices have seen great volatility in recent weeks. Going into the meeting, oil was trading at multi-month highs of over $70. This was largely due to rising tensions between the US and Iran and the prospect of US military action. Iran is a significant OPEC oil producer. The country has also stated that if attacked, it could attack targets in the region, which might include oilfields in neighbouring countries, or Iran could order the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting natural gas and some oil exports. While the US and Iran are set to begin negotiations, the consensus is that a US attack could still happen, which might trigger a series of events impacting global oil prices. Other seasonal demand and supply factors have also influenced price movements. In the US, snowstorms and freezing conditions have frozen pipelines and disrupted supply, while energy demand has remained firm. The US also continues to crack down on countries importing Russian oil. India has reportedly agreed to stop Russian oil imports in return for reduced US tariffs on Indian goods. Despite earlier trade/tariff concerns, both China and the US economies appear robust. So far, it’s been a good year for oil bulls.
Conclusion
February’s V8 meeting was a formality, but important nonetheless. By holding production steady, the group signalled a cautious approach — balancing supply with ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertain demand trends. While tensions in the Middle East and economic signals continue to heavily influence prices, OPEC+ is trying to encourage stability over short-term policy shifts. In the meantime, oil traders appear more optimistic than they have been for many months.