This Week
Over the weekend US Senate reached a deal to end the longest government shutdown. The amended package would still have to be passed by the House of Representatives and sent to President Donald Trump for his signature, a process that could take several days. The bill is expected to keep the government running until the end of January next year. With limited economic data coming from the U.S. in a process of waiting for the government to reopen, attention has shifted to geopolitical developments. Tensions remain elevated in several conflict zones, including the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, with ongoing risks of escalation between Iran and Israel, which could destabilize the region further. The conflict in Ukraine continues as a prolonged, low-intensity struggle with little prospect for a lasting peace soon. Additionally, high-stakes competition between the U.S. and China around technology and trade persists as a key factor, driving global economic fragmentation and increased rivalry. Meanwhile, Europe prepares to release important economic data, including third-quarter GDP figures for the UK and Eurozone, as well as monthly updates on UK manufacturing, services, and construction, alongside revised Eurozone GDP and industrial production numbers.
Stocks
TESLA
Tesla shareholders approved a new compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, resolving previous legal hurdles that delayed an earlier package. This plan could reward Musk with up to $1 trillion in stock over the next decade, conditional on Tesla hitting ambitious growth and valuation targets. The approval was met positively by investors, signaling confidence in Musk's ongoing commitment to Tesla despite his other ventures. Following the vote, Tesla’s stock showed some short-term fluctuations but remained relatively stable.
ELI LILLY
Eli Lilly shares were up 6.8% last week after the company reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat forecasts, while raising its full-year guidance. Continuous demand for its blockbuster weight-loss treatment Zepbound and diabetes medicine Mounjaro are driving the results. The company recorded Q3 revenue of $17.6 billion, up 54% compared to the same period last year. U.S. sales rose 45% to $11.3 billion. Meanwhile, both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk reportedly agreed with the Trump administration to discount prices for their weight-loss treatments in exchange for reduced tariffs and wider market access.
Commodities
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices lost 2.44% in a week, regardless of the continued geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, as weaker U.S. demand weighed on the market. The latest developments with Middle Eastern ceasefires briefly alleviated upward pressure on prices, but remaining doubts over the durability of these agreements kept sentiment cautious. At the same time, US sanctions on Russian oil producers and the announcement by OPEC+ that it does not plan to increase production in the first quarter supported the longer-term bullish outlook for crude. Overall, the price action has swung within a narrow range due to a fragile balance between uncertain supply dynamics and soft short-term demand, with key producers maintaining steady operations despite lingering volatility.
Gold
Gold prices rose 0.86% last week, suggesting that the recent pullback from record highs could be stabilizing. The move came amid a stronger U.S. dollar and cautious investor sentiment driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. At the same time, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December continued to support gold’s safe-haven appeal, even as some profit-taking limited the extent of the rally.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices rose 8% and have been on the rise amidst the continuing conflict in Ukraine and turmoil in the Middle East. The United States continues to export large volumes of LNG to Asia and Europe, as early signals point to a colder winter in boosting demand. Domestic supply remains tight as exports consume an increasing share of production with strong demand from both industrial and power sectors. In Europe, despite better storage levels than in recent crisis years, supplies are being drawn down quickly due to cold weather and a reduction in pipeline deliveries from Russia and North Africa. Put together, these factors continue to keep natural gas prices up and volatile.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD traded mainly in a tight range last week. The U.S. dollar received some support from better-than-expected October ADP employment data, but with growing concerns over the economic impact of more than a month-long U.S. government shutdown, expectations rose for another Fed rate cut in December and capped further USD gains. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP will be released on Friday, November 14; economists expect it to remain unrevised from the prior results.
Recap
Last week, the S&P 500 was down 2.86%, the Nasdaq was down 1.56% and the Dow Jones was down 1.25%. U.S. stock markets moved lower in the final week of trading as investors worried about the government shutdown stretching into its second month. The shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, such as inflation and jobs reports, leaving private sector figures to partially fill the gap. Tesla shareholders approved the landmark pay plan for CEO Elon Musk that could result in rewarding him up to $1 trillion in stock over the course of the next decade. Crude oil prices ended a second straight week down amidst oversupply concerns and weakening U.S. demand. Gold prices fell for a third consecutive week, with futures indicating about a 70% chance of an interest rate cut in December, usually supportive of gold prices.